– We may have shot the golden bird again – E24

– If the more optimistic estimate comes in, we can fortunately risk having shot the golden bird again, says Anniken Hauglie, CEO of Norwegian Oil and Gas for E24.

The state has already been searching for minerals under the seabed on the Norwegian shelf. Now the oil industry has become interested and a recent analysis shows a potential of one billion for Norway.

On Friday, Hauglie will deliver the latest report from analytics company Rystad Energy.

If the most optimistic estimates come true, it may turn out that Norway has won the “natural resources lottery”.

Rystad points out that Norway is the country after Fiji that has the largest economic rights to formations with, among other things, copper, cobalt and zinc, in the world.

These are raw materials that are essential to produce everything from electrical components, electric car batteries, wind turbines and solar panels, products that are growing rapidly thanks to the transition to zero emissions around the world.

Norway owns 2 percent of economic rights, while other countries have a total of 34 percent. The remaining 64 percent is in international waters, according to Rystad.

– But we are not there yet to harvest these fruits. We have huge areas and resources in Norway, and if we know our visiting hours, work should start as soon as possible, says Hauglie.

When Oil and Energy Minister Tina Bru recently came out at E24 to announce the start of a new energy report, she pointed out that seabed minerals will be an issue.

Billions may be at stake

As a leading spokesperson for the Norwegian oil industry, Hauglie sees opportunities for his industry to use the technology, expertise and capital that it has from oil to extract minerals from the seabed.

– The important thing is that we ensure activity in the oil and gas industry in the future so that we keep it going until we can start with new industrial activities, he says.

– Is there anyone who works with this and has shown interest in the potential among its members?

– Yes, we already see it in the Aker system, Equinor, Loke Marine and maritime clusters, among others, says Hauglie.

The Rystad report outlines different scenarios of what can happen in Norway.

By 2050, revenue could increase slightly less than 5 and up to 20 billion dollars annually. Therefore, it sees the potential of an industry with a turnover of up to 180 000 million kroner in this country.

If the most optimistic forecast is reached, it will use 21,000 man-years, according to Rystad.

“This lays the foundation for building an industry based on a domestic market with significant export potential, as Norway has done in deepwater oil and gas,” writes Rystad.

“A key ingredient in building the 120 billion kronor export industry that we have in offshore oil and gas was creating a leading local industry, while the global market was in its infancy.”

The analytics company believes that the time to invest in seabed minerals “is now,” and forecasts assume that the first project will be in production sometime between 2030 and 2035.

I want areas

The government has already laid the groundwork for this new industry with a new seabed minerals law that was passed in 2019.

From 2018 to 2020, the state paid for several exploration expeditions on the Norwegian shelf under the auspices of the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Anniken Hauglie says that she herself has no idea which of Rystad’s scenarios she believes in the most, noting that this is also why she needs to start the additional work now.

So the oil industry wants the state to assign land and licenses, that is, to follow the process that it has had in oil, where the state looks first and then the oil companies gradually release block by block.

– Now we want the area is lit so that industry can start working on the actual surveys and see the potential for industrial development. We know from the experience of the oil industry that it takes a few years from the start of exploration until projects can be completed, says Hauglie.

– There is great potential for a new, large and profitable industry that can emerge from the oil and gas industry, and the technology and experience you have there continues.

Rystad points out several key elements needed for extraction of minerals, and several of them are recognizable in the oil industry:

You will need floating production vessels, shuttle tanks to carry the minerals, cables, pipes, pumps, drilling equipment and various subsea solutions.

Rystad has created a production concept in which they estimate that $ 780 million in investment (NOK 7.0 billion) is needed to install all the equipment.

Must be competitive

Although Norway has many resources, it is not necessarily easy to extract them.

Rystad notes that seabed minerals will avoid many of the current landmine problems, which in many cases struggle with environmental footprints and poor working conditions.

At the same time, many of Norway’s resources are far from land and the costs of operating underwater are generally higher.

– If there is anything that Norway can do is manage resources in demanding waters, says Hauglie.

– How do you see Norway’s competitiveness in this field?

– Every new industry is expensive, at least initially, but we are absolutely sure that it will be a commercially profitable industry. Everything we do pays off over time, says Hauglie.

– We currently have a profitable oil and gas industry in Norway, although taxes and costs may be higher than in other regions. This means that we must work smarter and better, but we have a tradition of showing that we can do it in Norway, he continues.