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President Donald Trump wants to drastically reduce the number of US troops in Afghanistan. This can have serious consequences for the peace process, according to a researcher from the Peace Research Department.
The US Department of Defense announced Tuesday night that the number of US troops in Afghanistan will be reduced from 4,500 to 2,500.
The Pentagon also confirmed that it would reduce the number of US troops in Iraq from 3,000 to 2,500.
Researcher Kristian Berg Harpviken from the Department of Peace Research says he is not very surprised by the announcement to the Pentagon. He points out that this is an acceleration of something that was planned for early next year.
– Another reason I’m not surprised is that when Trump has shuffled the Pentagon leadership, it is obvious that he wants to use it for something. I was expecting this to happen and I would be surprised if there aren’t other things that can make life a bit difficult for Joe Biden, says Harpviken.
You may lose the last trading hard currency
On Tuesday, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warned against moving too fast in the region. The researcher shares his concerns, mainly due to the ongoing peace process.
– It is a difficult process, first of all because the Americans have lost their cards and those of the Afghan government. The Taliban have already met many of their demands, making it difficult to move forward, explains Harpviken, continuing:
– If they withdraw completely militarily, they may lose the last strong bargaining chip to the Afghan government and international forces. So it is highly unlikely that you will reach a peace agreement.
An agreement between the Taliban and the government, signed in February, is the basis for the negotiations. This agreement imposes on the Taliban, among other things, a reduction in the scope of violence. If they do not comply with these terms, the United States will halt the withdrawal and resume hostilities.
– If they quickly extract all the strength, the rice behind the mirror will disappear, says the researcher.
Stoltenberg: the price can be very high
Trump’s plans to bring troops home have sparked strong reactions internationally. Concern is also great among the Afghan government and Afghan citizens.
– Because they see that it can have serious consequences. That the peace negotiations will fail and that it will be possible to intensify the war even more. Many do not know that Afghanistan in these three years has been the deadliest conflict in the world, says Harpviken.
According to Axios, Trump has expressed frustration to his advisers that the withdrawal is too slow and said he wants it to happen before Christmas. One of his promises during the 2016 campaign was to bring home American soldiers.
“It is time to go home,” new Defense Secretary Christopher Miller wrote in a statement to the US military last week. It was interpreted as a warning of a significant reduction in force in both Afghanistan and Syria.
– Now we are faced with a difficult decision. The price of leaving early and uncoordinated can be very high, Stoltenberg said in a written statement.
Mitch McConnell with warning
Trump fired his former defense secretary Mark Esper last week and installed Miller. But a few days before his impeachment, Esper is said to have sent a secret note to the president and warned against withdrawing the soldiers, according to the Washington Post.
– Afghanistan runs the risk of once again becoming a platform for international terrorists planning and carrying out attacks in our countries of origin. And ISIL can rebuild the caliphate in Afghanistan that they lost in Syria and Iraq, Stoltenberg warns.
The Republican Majority Leader in the House of Representatives, Mitch McConnell, issued a similar warning Monday, according to Axios.
“A swift withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan will now harm our allies and please those who want to harm us,” McConnell said, according to the media house.
He compared the withdrawal from Afghanistan to the 1975 withdrawal of US forces from Ho Chi Minh City after the Vietnam War, which the Republican described as “humiliating.”