Trump’s dangerous legacy – VG

Last week, Trump convened his top advisers at the White House. According to the New York Times, Trump is said to have asked them what options he had for attacking Iran’s main nuclear facilities. The words were probably more diplomatic, but the advice was clear: Forget it. The risk is too great.

But the question remains: Will war or peace affect Trump’s finals?

He is expected to use the last few weeks as president to implement major changes in US foreign policy. It could make successor Joe Biden’s job difficult.

On Tuesday night, the United States Department of Defense confirmed to the Pentagon that there will be a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq. Almost half of the US force in Afghanistan is repatriated. A unilateral and swift withdrawal could create even greater chaos in these countries. The bidder will have the thankless task of cleaning up.

And if the United States attacked Iran, it would be very difficult for a new president to save the 2015 nuclear deal. An agreement that Trump canceled in 2018.

Trump has clearly shown that he does not intend to cooperate in the transition phase until a new administration is established. It has not even acknowledged defeat in the presidential elections. The fact that Trump recently fired Defense Secretary Mark Esper and several defense chiefs can be interpreted as a sign that he has big plans for the next few weeks and will eliminate any imaginable opposition in advance. It’s in security and foreign policy that Trump can create the biggest problems for Biden.

The day before Trump summoned Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller, Vice President Mike Pence and Chief of Staff Mark Milley to discuss Iran, international inspectors had produced a grim report. Iran has a reserve of lava-enriched uranium twelve times larger than is required under the nuclear deal. If Iran chooses to convert this into highly enriched uranium, it could have enough material for two atomic bombs, according to New York Times sources. In that case, it will only happen a few months after Biden has assumed the presidency.

None of the four who participated in the meeting are security policy pigeons. But in this case, they must have been clear that an attack can easily turn into a major conflict. Hence, they advised against using missiles against Natanz, which is Iran’s most important nuclear facility.

The report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirms that Iran is violating the agreement it signed with the United States, Russia, China and the European powers. It is very serious. The IAEA notes that Iran does not produce highly enriched uranium for weapons. Iran says, as always, that it has no intention of developing nuclear weapons. But in action, the Iranians are in the process of destroying the nuclear deal. Give the signatory countries reasons to react.

also read

Trump v. Biden: how the rest of the world is affected

Trump has less reason to punish Iran. Tehran defends itself by saying that Trump was the first to break the deal, announcing the United States in 2018. He launched a deal that worked. His hard line has achieved nothing more than Iran enriching large amounts of uranium. This increases the risk of nuclear proliferation. The situation is terrifyingly similar to the dangerous time before the nuclear deal came into force.

Saudi Arabia is Iran’s main rival in the region. Deputy Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir says that if Iran is not prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons, it will open the door for Saudi Arabia to do the same. He also believes that more countries will follow. Biden wants to save the deal, but it could prove difficult. At the very least, it presupposes that Iran meets all of its obligations. The question is whether Trump will somehow punish Iran and, at the same time, hinder Biden’s plan.

Starting an armed conflict with Iran will not like Trump’s supporters, who have just highlighted the positive that the president, unlike many of his predecessors, has not gone to war. Much more popular at home will be bringing soldiers home from what Trump calls endless wars.

The Pentagon reports that the number of US troops in Afghanistan will be reduced from 4,500 to 2,500,500 of a total of 3,000 in Iraq will also be sent home before Trump leaves the White House.

Before Trump’s decision was officially confirmed, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell stepped forward with a rare criticism of the president. He believes that a swift American withdrawal will give the extremists a great propaganda victory. It will also turn its back on its American partners. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was also clear in his warning. Remember that more than half of the allied forces in Afghanistan are from countries other than the United States. Stoltenberg believes that the price for withdrawing prematurely and without coordination can be very high.

The danger is that extremists will take advantage of the vacuum that arises when the United States withdraws. The so-called Islamic State (IS) may try to rebuild its lost caliphate. Al Qaeda may have more leeway. And if Tehran wants, they will soon be able to have nuclear weapons.

This is Trump’s great legacy to Biden.