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WASHINGTON, MOSKVA (The Guardian): For the past four years, a heavy Russian shadow loomed over American politics. But issues like secret cooperation, Russian interference and Ukraine scandals have been largely absent from the agenda as we approach Election Day.
Moscow may still have plans to interfere in the elections. Last month, FBI Director Christopher Way stated that the agency had observed “active efforts by Russia to influence the 2020 elections.” This has mainly involved misinformation intended to weaken Joe Biden. The fact that US authorities indicted six Russian cyber soldiers last week is an important reminder of the potential threat.
“We understand each other”
However, it may appear that Putin is securing himself against democratic victory as polls give Joe Biden an increasing chance to flee with the election winner. The Russian president refused to support Donald Trump in his baseless accusations against Hunter Biden and his business deals with Ukraine. Putin noted that “he could not see anything criminal in this.”
Putin has also signaled that he supports the Democrats’ desire for better gun control.
The Russian president knows former Vice President Biden well, although the relationship is colder than with President Trump.
“I look deep into your eyes and I don’t think you have a soul,” Biden is said to have told Putin when the two met in 2011, according to Biden’s own report to the New Yorker.
– He looked at me, smiled and said “we understand each other”, said Biden.
Biden has not focused on the fact that Trump is weak to Putin or the Kremlin’s interference in the election campaign. One of the main reasons for this is that the election campaign is taking place in the shadow of the crown pandemic, and Biden’s election officials believe that people are tired of hearing about Russia.
Most important to American voters now is Trump’s mishandling of the crown pandemic, the economy, and the danger posed by white nationalism. That the Russians interfered in the 2016 election seems distant to people who are just trying to make a living, says Michael Carpenter, Biden’s former foreign policy adviser when he was vice president.
Carpenter still maintains close contact with Biden’s election campaign apparatus.
It may also be that “russergate” has never been a really big issue for voters. Trump supporters dismissed it all as “fake news,” and many of his opponents have focused more on other challenges.
– Russia is an issue for the media and Washington. My students don’t care about Russia. They worry about “black lives matter” and “so do I,” says Russian-American Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international politics at the New School in New York.
Speculation about Hunter Biden’s business in Ukraine has resonated only with Trump’s top voters.
Sovereignty and traditional values
If Moscow really did contribute to Trump’s 2016 election, Trump hasn’t done much to improve bilateral cooperation with Russia, other than bragging about Putin.
But the Kremlin appreciates Trump’s aversion to Western alliances and his patriotism of the “America first” approach. That may explain why more people in Moscow want Trump to win the election.
– Putin and people in his circle like Trump. It fits very well with your world view. He illustrates his logic that the world is moving away from liberal values and multilateralism, and towards sovereignty and traditional values, says Andrey Kortunov, at the Russian Council on International Affairs.
He believes Putin sincerely does not understand heads of state like Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron. According to Kortunov, Putin believes that his values are hollow and cynical. At the same time, he sees Trump as an ally, although Putin doesn’t like Trump personally.
Trump and Putin share a “skepticism of international bodies, an emphasis on sovereignty, a transnationalist approach to foreign policy and the feeling that discussions of values are just hypocrisy,” Kortunov said.
In October, Putin took note of Biden’s repeated sharp anti-Russia rhetoric. Something that he saw as a stark contrast to Trump’s repeated statements that he wants a better relationship with Moscow.
“Biden’s approach to Russia will involve supporting a dialogue on arms control, strategic stability, crisis management and risk reduction from a strengthened position,” says Carpenter.
He thinks it is too easy to see only Russian politics in black and white.
The two presidents when they met in Hamburg in 2017. Photo: Evan Vucci / AP
Bad collaboration, whatever happens
Kortunov believes that the election result will not significantly affect bilateral cooperation with Russia, unlike Germany, Israel and China.
– The bad news is that this is because it will be bad anyway. Everything that can be destroyed is already destroyed. And there is little hope for improvement, says Kortunov.
Kirill Dmitriev, director of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, declined to comment on whether he wants Trump or Biden to win the election.
You agree that it probably can’t get any worse.
– Historically, relations between Russia and the United States have never been worse. So it’s hard to imagine it could get even worse, he says.
Dmitriev was reported to have acted as an intermediary for contacts between members of the Trump administration and the Kremlin after the 2016 elections. Russia still denies any participation in the elections.
Read also: Obama mocks Trump: – He is jealous of the media coverage of the crown crisis
– The Russians told us: you were open
Fiona Hill, who was previously the leading Russian expert in the White House and who testified in the Supreme Court investigation, stated that Nikolai Patrushev and other top Russian officials almost admitted to interfering in the 2016 elections.
– The Russians told us: you were open. They essentially admitted it. They said it was our fault this got out of control.
Russian officials indicated that the United States had given Russia free rein with its divisive policy. Hill thought they had a good point:
– We deliver the raw materials. We made our own mistakes. The Russian intervention would not have worked without polarization and our deep structural problems.
In the run-up to these elections, there have also been allegations of Russian attempts to influence the political landscape, for example, a right-wing website aimed at influencing American voters. But this has received little attention. Perhaps the amount of misinformation coming from the White House makes the Russians’ attempt seem like a drop in the bucket.
– The biggest risk for this election is not the Russians. It’s us, says Hill.
Translated and edited by Kathleen Buer / ABC News / © Guardian News & Media Limited
