– The crisis awaits us – VG

– Unfortunately, we have the impression that the crisis is coming to an end. Despite the fact that hairdressers and others who lost their jobs for a short time this spring are back at work, major markets are still completely down. We fear that thousands of jobs, which will not return, will disappear in the next year, says Ole Erik Almlid.

The Norwegian Confederation of Business and Industry (NHO) will present its financial barometer for the third quarter on Tuesday. It is alarming.

3,014 business leaders were asked, among other things, how they assess the future prospects for the coming year.

These are the main findings:

• Pessimism still prevails; Overall, 18 percent expect the market situation to worsen in the next six to 12 months.

This is the second-lowest number since the survey began in 2009, second only to the second quarter of this year, when much of Norway was closed this spring. In total, 26 percent responded that they expected a deterioration.

– We expected the prospects to be brighter. They probably did this this summer, but after the new fall outbreaks and growing problems in international markets, our business community is still very pessimistic, in fact more pessimistic this fall than at worst during the crisis. of oil in 2015-2016, says Almlid. .

– The figures can be interpreted as something positive; Does it seem like the bottom has been hit and that optimism is a bit on the rise again?

– Remember that we measure against a time in the spring when it is a short period had more than 400,000 unemployed. I have great respect for hairdressers, but now there are others who have greater challenges. Hair grows all the time and they always want a job. It is much worse for our supplier industry; maritime sector, shipyards and equipment suppliers.

– Pillar companies

– They enjoy the oil pack meaning that oil companies will re-invest, most recently highlighted by Equinor’s investment in Breidablikk, which, among other things, awards Aker Solutions a contract of NOK 2.5 billion?

– The problem is that there are only a few large shipyards that seem to benefit from it, not so many of the small and medium-sized shipyards and suppliers. These are key companies across our coast, which are not allowed to fill their order books. If they smoke, so do workplaces.

We met with the head of the NHO and the chairman of the board of the Maritime Forum; Executive Vice President Even Aas of the Kongsberg Group, in the port of Oslo, where Norwegian products are shipped out of the country.

– Norway is the only country that has a full maritime cluster and now experiences almost no new orders. This is due to the crisis in Norway, but also in international markets, says Aas.

– 20,000 jobs

It says there are 20,000 jobs that could disappear in the next few years.

– A new Menon report shows that one in five maritime industry employees is at risk of losing their job within the next 2-3 years. From 86,000 in early 2020 to 66,000 in late 2022.

He and the NHO chief meet behind two common demands:

– First, the authorities must force the construction of the planned ships, including the deminers to the Navy, says Almlid.

– Secondly, we must make arrangements to upgrade the 90 ships operating in the North Sea oil fields to ecological solutions. These two things will contribute to more activity, secure jobs and green change, says Aas.

See the summary

The expectations barometer shows that the acute problems are mainly in aviation, transportation, shipping and tourism.

Here’s the assessment from the business leaders:

* In aviation, they expect a 75 percent deterioration in the market situation over the next six to 12 months.

* Transportation 63%, maritime transportation 57% and tourism 54%.

– These are dramatic numbers. A package for tourism is being worked on and we expect the government to present a package for aviation and transport, where companies have actually stopped, says the head of NHO.

– Too early to tell

Trade and Industry Minister Iselin Nybø (V) says 2020 has been demanding for the business community, where the government has come up with various crisis packages.

– It is too early to say if there will be bankruptcies and layoffs, but the government is monitoring the situation and making adjustments to instruments to help ensure that such negative consequences do not become too extensive.

She says that the government, among other things, has promoted various crisis measures aimed at activity in the maritime industry and the development of green shipping.

– In the revised national budget and in the third crisis package, a deposit package totaling NOK 744 million was adopted. This will contribute to new allocations for both shipbuilding yards and equipment suppliers.