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When the agreement on the normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates was announced last month, it reminded me of a Kinderegg. It contained three assets, one for the Emirates, one for Israel, and one for the United States.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls the agreement historic. The Emirates are only the third Arab country to make peace with Israel. Egypt did so in 1979 and Jordan in 1994.
Jerusalem now hopes that more Arab countries will follow in the footsteps of the Emirates. Netanyahu is under heavy pressure due to the crown crisis, government problems and a corruption case against him. A diplomatic triumph is useful.
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US President Donald Trump is planning a signing ceremony in Washington, DC in late September to celebrate an agreement reached after adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner’s shuttle diplomacy this summer. Trump describes the agreement as a major step toward a more peaceful, secure and prosperous Middle East. Trump will show an important electorate, white evangelical voters, that he is keeping his promises.
The United Arab Emirates, led by powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi, can point to the fact that they managed to stop the Israeli government’s plans to annex large parts of the occupied West Bank. And in parallel to these negotiations, there have been talks with the United States about purchasing advanced weapons, including F-35 fighters that have long been on the Emirates’ wish list.
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Once the others have supplied themselves, the Palestinians are left empty-handed. The fact that the Israeli annexation plan has been shelved, at least temporarily, is a bad consolation. Palestinian leaders do not want the status quo. They want the Arab countries to stand firm on Israel’s demand that the price of normalization be the establishment of a Palestinian state. Now the Palestinians see the Arab front crack.
The Emirates’ deal with Israel is an expression of the fact that authoritarian Sunni Muslim monarchies in the region do not see Israel as the biggest problem. Instead, they have a common enemy in Iran. Trump is of the same opinion.
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Israel and the Emirates will now establish diplomatic relations, a direct flight route, and will also facilitate trade and cooperation. Trump says the ice has been broken and hopes that more Arab and Muslim countries will follow suit. The king of this diplomatic game is Saudi Arabia.
King Salman bin Abdulaziz reiterated in a phone conversation with Trump last weekend that a peace deal with Israel is only relevant if they accept the 2002 Arab peace initiative. Then Israel must withdraw to the 1967 borders and accept the establishment. of a Palestinian state in the occupied territories. .
When Trump announced the standardization agreement, he said nothing about US arms sales to the Emirates. But at a press conference in late August, he commented on the US media reports:
“They have the money and they would like to order quite a few F-35 jets. The request is being considered, but they have made great strides for peace in the Middle East,” Trump stressed.
Trump did not mention that the Emirates had been heavily involved in the catastrophic and protracted war in Yemen, until last year he announced that he was withdrawing most of his forces from the war-torn country.
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The White House is said to want to sell Emirates Reaper drones in addition to the F-35. According to The New York Times, the EA-18G Growler is also on the shopping list. This is an electronic warfare aircraft that can, among other things, disrupt enemy air defenses. So far, only the United States and Australia have this weapon.
Such messages are causing concern in security circles in Israel and unrest among some politicians of both parties in Washington, DC The United States has long guaranteed Israel that it will have a qualitative military advantage over Arab countries. Israel will never be able to mobilize forces as large as its Arab neighbors, but the United States can ensure that it has the most advanced weapons.
Today, Israel is the only country in the Middle East that has F-35 fighter jets. Turkey was expelled from the program when they chose to purchase a Russian S-400 air defense system, despite protests from the United States and other NATO countries, including Norway, who participated in the F-35 program.
Israel’s official position is that no Arab country should have access to such weapons, despite the fact that it has concluded a peace agreement with Jerusalem. Netanyahu denied reports in American and Israeli newspapers that he had agreed not to block the Emirates from buying the F-35.
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The agreement between Israel and the Emirates could be the beginning of a major shift in the political landscape in the Middle East, if other Arab countries follow suit. But it does not seem convincing that the parties refer to her in a very different way, obviously adapted to internal opinion.
The Emirates version is that they have stopped the annexation of Israel. Netanyahu says his long-term plan to expand Israeli sovereignty is unaffected. Neither side reassures the Palestinians. They are only spectators of the diplomatic game.
