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WARNING: Johan Giesecke believes that Norway has only two to three percent of the population’s immunity, which will lead to further infection when the government provides measures. Photo: Ali Lorestani / TT / TT NEWS AGENCY
On Thursday, the government eased several of the more radical coronary measures. This will lead to increased infection and more deaths, according to the former Swedish state epidemiologist.
Norway will capture Sweden in the number of crowned deaths in a year, former Swedish state epidemiologist Johan Giesecke told Dagens Nyheter on Friday morning.
“The reason is that everyone in the world will be infected with the corona virus,” he explains to VG.
See the overview of GV coronavirus in the Nordic countries here.
Giesecke is a former director of research for the European Infection Protection Agency and a state epidemiologist. He is now a professor at the Karolinska Institute and an advisor to the World Health Organization (WHO).
– It is not possible to stop a pandemic of a respiratory infection virus. You can stop it for a period like in Norway, but as soon as you remove the “lock”, more people will become infected, says Giesecke.
Partial immunity obtained
Giesecke notes that Sweden has managed to slow the spread of the infection. In Norway, the government has chosen a strategy to stop the epidemic.
It still predicts less infection and fewer coronary deaths in Sweden. Still, he believes the measures in Sweden will last at least through the summer.
– I have been interviewed by the media in other countries for a month, with five interviews per day. Just two weeks ago, the questions were: “What are they doing? This doesn’t make sense. You kill the elders to gain herd immunity.” Now all is the opposite. Now everyone has to get out of their confinement and wonder what Sweden has done, he says.
Giesecke says Swedish public health authorities decided from the start to only introduce measures that have scientific evidence.
– Norwegian politicians wanted to implement measures quickly and did not think for a moment about how to get out of the blockade, he says.
– Looking back on the choice of strategy, are you satisfied with the line Sweden has embarked on?
– yes We have achieved immunity in 25 percent of the population in Stockholm County. Norway has two or three percent. You’ll have trouble relaxing the measurements, he says..
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I’ve felt pressure
Earlier this week, VG was able to write that FHI on March 8 meant that intervention measures from other countries put pressure on Norway and it was challenging. Four days later, the government challenged its advice by presenting the strictest measures in peacetime.
– Have you felt so much pressure to introduce more measures?
– yes But politicians should make wise decisions and not go after everyone else, he says.
No country can prevent the spread of infections in nursing homes, according to Giesecke. Photo: Ali Lorestani / TT / TT NEWS AGENCY
Despite criticism of the Swedish strategy, Giesecke has always supported the strategy.
Swedish public health authorities have weekly contact with institutes of public health in the Nordic countries. FHI has become increasingly interested in Swedish strategy, according to Giesecke.
– I can’t stop a pandemic
If the so-called reproduction number, that is, how many infected people continues to pass, remains below 1, the epidemic could stop, according to Giesecke. According to FHI calculations, the Norwegian R figure has been below 1 since April 6.
– But then you must keep the measurements for a long time, he says and continues:
– Everyone must understand, politicians and doctors, you can not stop a pandemic of infection by a respiratory virus. It can be stopped for a time, for one, two or six months. But in western democratic countries it is not possible. People will not agree to sit inside for six months.
– In your experience, what are the most important measures that can work over time?
– It is slowing the epidemic. Wash your hands, keep your distance, do not wave by hand. I think gloves should be worn when traveling collectively. But it helps little, in the end you get infected anyway.
No country can prevent the spread of infections in nursing homes, according to Giesecke.
– An employee may make a small mistake, then run. That doesn’t mean giving up, but the infection will spread there anyway.
Correction: In an earlier version of this case, Johan Giesecke was quoted as saying, “You can’t stop a pandemic from a virus in the air.” The WHO rejected on March 30 that the virus is in the air. When VG informed the professor of this, he changed the statement to “It is not possible to stop a pandemic of a respiratory infection virus.” The correction was made on 08.05.2020 at 21.52.
