Half of all deaths in London are corona virus related – NRK Urix – Foreign news and documentaries

In London, 1,506 people died from the coronavirus in week 15. That’s 53.2 percent of all fatalities, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Tuesday.

In England and Wales, this figure is 33.6%, which represents a strong increase from the previous week.

The highest death toll in 20 years.

England is one of several countries that can report the least number of deaths in coronation statistics. Therefore, you may want to see the total death toll and how much stands out from a normal week.

In week 15 (until April 10), 18,516 people died in England and Wales. That’s about 8,000 more than normal, and the highest one-week death rate in 20 years, reports the ONS statistics office.

(It was in week 1 of 2000, and the high number may be due to both the flu and a delay in the Christmas season.)

In England and Wales, 76 percent more people now die than normal in this area.

Of the 8,000 above-normal deaths, 6,200 were associated with the coronavirus, according to the ONS. This means that deaths for other reasons are also increasing, which could mean that the closure has a negative impact on people’s health.

One theory has been that people don’t get to the hospital fast enough, for example a stroke, a concern that has also been in Norway.

But there is also speculation to play more often covid-19 puts the death certificate.

The number of deaths from the State Statistics Office of England shows a higher number of coronary deaths than the state of the health authorities.

Norwegian statistics have deaths that occur outside hospitals and where the coronavirus appears in the death registry even though tests have not been performed, explains ONS.

The New York Times has compiled similar statistics in 11 countries, and found that at least 28,000 more have died during the crown pandemic than appears in official crown statistics.

The newspaper writes that there is no reason to believe that this is deliberate underinformation, but rather limited evidence capacity.

However, the figures for all those who die provide an important picture of the scope.

“These numbers refute the notion that many people who have died from the virus would soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice as many people die daily than normal. It is also well above a difficult flu season. In New York City, that number is now four times normal, “writes the New York Times.

The top can be reached

Figures from the Office of National Statistics provide the best picture of the total number of deaths, but there is a significant delay.

Professor David Spiegelhalter of the University of Cambridge says that according to the BBC, the latest figures indicate that the peak has been reached and is slowly declining.

Looking at the date of deaths in hospitals in England, they have fallen since April 8.

Different reports

How covid-19 deaths are reported may vary from country to country. For example, Belgium has reported all cases of suspected association with the coronavirus, despite the fact that the dead person has not been analyzed.

In England, the BBC has reported a possible lack of information from nursing homes.

Even Norway and Sweden record crown deaths differently.

– Dramatic changes

Therefore, figures on the total number of people dying can give the most accurate picture of pandemic mortality.

Norway is one of the 24 countries in Europe that reports to Euromomo’s statistics service. Here you can see how many people die in total and compare the figure with previous years.

Although the curve in Norway has been within the normal range, there is now a sharp increase in the number of deaths in various European countries.

“There have been a death toll in Europe in recent weeks, especially in the age group 65 and over, but also in the age group 15-64. The current covid-19 pandemic is a probable cause of this ”, writes FHI about European figures.

At Euromomo you see that the curve for Norway is normal. In countries like Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands and England, far more people died than normal.

– It’s interesting.When such dramatic changes occur, it gives a good clue. Especially since the timely connection to the pandemic period is very clear. I also reacted to the fact that the spikes are higher than previous influenza spikes, says Øyvind Næss, associate professor in the department of social medicine and global health at the University of Oslo.

– Could it be that many people who die now would die anyway, and that the total death rate when this ends will be less than normal?

– It is possible, but it surprises me that this number drops to zero with such a significant increase in mortality that we are seeing now and that many of those who died as a result of covid-19 have also lost their stomach years and not weeks, he responds Ness, who has a PhD in epidemiology.

There will always be a delay in the numbers. Reports may now be delayed further due to Easter, Euromomo notes.

Worse than the flu?

Euromomo statistics were made to monitor deaths regardless of cause in Europe. Like other European countries, Norway presents figures of all deaths recorded each week. Statistics are also used as the basis for calculating how many people die from the flu, but this requires additional calculations.

– We had little impact earlier this winter, which is likely due to a mild flu season. Now we see that death rates are very high in several European countries, says senior adviser Ragnhild Tønnessen of the Institute of Public Health.

– This gives a complementary image because it is difficult to say if people are dying from or with covid-19. But it’s important to know that there is a lag in the numbers, so we won’t get a fuller picture until later, he says.

– There has been a discussion about how deadly the coronavirus is compared to the flu. What can you expect from Euromomo figures at the current stage?

– Euromomo figures currently show overall mortality on par with several previous winters. We can’t use the figures from this surveillance for a direct comparison of how deadly covid-19 is in relation to the flu, but it may give some indication, says Tønnessen.

Comparison created debate

Mette Kalager is a professor in the Department of Health Management and Health Economics at the University of Oslo. Together with seven other researchers, he compared covid-19 mortality with seasonal influenza in Sweden, Norway and Denmark, and used the figures reported by countries to Euromomo, as shown here.

They found that as of March 10, 2020, mortality (the proportion of a population that dies in a given period of time) was lower in all countries than in the case of influenza. The investigation, which was first discussed at the Aftenposten, generated some debate, and the researchers later responded to criticism.

NRK has asked Kalager how he sees the death toll now compared to flu periods.

– The image you have pointed out shows that since 2016 there have been a death toll in the seasonal flu weeks for countries reporting to EuroMOMO. Also, we look at the curves that mortality is now going down. Either because there is a delay at Easter, if there is a real reduction in mortality or if this is uncertain. Kalager explains that being able to interpret whether there is more or less mortality from week to week (or period) is not only interpreting the height of the curve, but one must observe the area below the curve.

In other words, we don’t get certain figures until the pandemic has ended.

– We, like everyone else, cannot know what is happening in the pandemic, we can only provide figures that are relevant to give an overview of what generally happens. We will not be able to evaluate all the measures taken under covid-19, ”says the UiO professor.

The chart below shows what the flu seasons have been like in England compared to what we see today.

– Doesn’t this show mortality far exceeding the flu season unless the numbers drop again?

– Yes, it may be higher than previous flu seasons. It is the area under the curve that is important and I don’t know how the curve will unfold. In Europe we saw that the curve was going down (week 14), it does not look like this in England (week 15).

Kalager tells NRK that crown deaths in Italy (35.7 deaths per 100,000) have not yet exceeded influenza deaths in the country since winter 16-17 (41.2 per 100,000).

– But the numbers in Italy could have been much worse without the extreme measures?

– Yes of course. It is not an evaluation of what works and what does not work. It is a reference, Kalager responds.