As focused as the NHL teams are in the present with the ambitious return to the game, the CBA extension that introduces a fixed salary cap for 2020-21 leaves GMs (and fans) with plenty to think about.
Sure, there are NHL teams that can take advantage of a fixed salary cap. That’s a post for another day, maybe a future edition of PHT’s power ratings?
But overall, there are plenty of NHL contenders and contenders who are sweating that fixed salary cap far more than they are ready to circle around like vultures. At a minimum, the NHL’s fixed salary cap presents huge hurdles for 2020-21. The domino effects of COVID-19 could affect multiple seasons, especially if the world continues to struggle to contain the coronavirus.
Let’s rank the five NHL teams most affected by the fixed salary cap of $ 81.5 million, then. While the broader future will be considered, these rankings weigh more in the offseason toward 2020-21.
Frankly, many teams will sweat this situation, so the Honorable Mentions section is pretty solid.
[At least there’s the NHL return-to-play schedule to look forward to.]
Power ranking: 5 NHL teams most affected by fixed salary cap
1. Tampa Bay Lightning
Even in an ideal, pandemic-free world, the Lightning would need to tighten his belt. This franchise closely resembles Dynasty-era Blackhawks when it comes to perennial hat crunches, only they unfortunately don’t have the jewelry to display. But with the NHL salary cap set at $ 81.5M? That adjustment of the belt is transformed into the possibility of painful surgeries.
After all, with around $ 76 million already dedicated to 15 players (more or less), things would be comfortable. Then take into account the talented RFAs Anthony Cirelli and Mikhail Sergachev who deserve significant increases and … whoops! It’s the kind of thing that can make you want to jet ski out of town.
(Cirelli can’t wait the tables forever).
Infomercial voice: But that is not all.
To make matters worse, Lightning CEO Julien BriseBois faces potential hurdles in the no trade / no move clauses. Through Cap Friendly, supporting cast members like Ondrej Palat, Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson, and Alex Killorn own such clauses. So it’s not just about who would like to move (as painful as it may be), but also who could be persuaded to leave.
Even with their frequently challenged standards, the Lightning have their work done for them.
2. St. Louis Blues
Lightning and Blues could really be a 1a / 1b situation.
Just as Tampa Bay expected struggles even with a cap increase, the Blues probably knew it would be difficult to keep Alex Pietrangelo. With approximately $ 79.45 million dedicated to his roster, how could St. Louis afford a Norris-level defender like Pietrangelo? Heck, how can they make it work to keep the blueliner RFA Vince Dunn underrated?
Also, like Lightning, it could be up to the Blues to convince players to give up the clauses, or to find tight adjustments to the places they would accept.
Maybe the Blues could make it work by moving a combination of Alexander Steen, Jake Allen, and / or a more painful loss like Brayden Schenn or Jaden Schwartz. Or maybe the Blues lose Pietrangelo, still need to make an awkward decision or two, and need to find a way to stay afloat?
Good thing they won at least one Stanley Cup, huh?
3. Arizona Coyotes
It’s okay if you’re doing a double take on the Coyotes now. Aren’t they supposed to be a team that barely makes it to the floor? Weren’t they putting Chris Pronger and Pavel Datsyuk in their cap just to get there?
Well, over the years, Coyotes have become increasingly expensive. They didn’t always get what they paid for, but this is not totally cheap equipment. (Although there is still a Marian Hossa here or there at LTIR).
Cap Friendly places Arizona’s boundary allocation at nearly $ 80 million dedicated to 17 players.
And that without Taylor Hall. The exchange for Hall represented a statement that the Coyotes want to be taken seriously. Doing it more than a rental would really solidify it, but could Arizona really do that job, assuming Hall returned?
The Coyotes could deal with many of the same trade clause headaches as others (Phil Kessel, Jason Demers, Alex Goligoski, Carl Soderberg), although bribing someone to take on Derek Stepan’s $ 6.5 million could be key. It may not be easy to find an oasis in this wage desert.
4. Toronto Maple Leafs
Maple Leafs are like a family trying to divide a pizza pie. You already had some hungry brothers who were going to leave little more than toppings and scabs (see: the expensive stars Auston Matthews, John Tavares and Mitch Marner). Now concerned parent / CEO Kyle Dubas has to contend with delivering a medium pizza instead of the extra-large pizza he expected before the NHL’s fixed salary cap.
At least this offseason, he doesn’t have too many mouths too big to feed.
(Yes, that long parallel pizza is my hunger staining this conversation like grease on a pizza box.)
The fixed salary cap hurts the Maple Leafs trying to make more aggressive moves to improve. Perhaps they can stem the tide of losing flawed but prominent defenders Tyson Barrie and Cody Ceci. But will they improve if they hope that internal options like Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren can sink, not swim? That remains to be seen.
But Dubas is also probably wise to be proactive, because the bill is coming soon for key players. If the Maple Leafs want to keep one or more of Frederik Andersen (contract runs until 2020-21) and Morgan Rielly (until 2021-22), it probably means making some painful swaps during the offseason.
The long-term prospects for Maple Leafs are mixed. However, they rank slightly lower on these specific power ratings because other teams face even more immediate concerns.
5. New York Islanders
Unlike others on this list, the islanders are barely hitting their heads with that NHL salary cap anymore. That said, its almost cozy looking space (Cap Friendly puts them at around $ 73.4M committed to 19 players) could quickly become claustrophobic.
Most importantly, the islanders must come to terms with RFA’s pending star Mathew Barzal. About 20 years ago (OK, March), Lou Lamoriello said the islanders would coincide with an offer sheet for Barzal. That’s heartwarming for islander fans who may still be smart about losing John Tavares, but that doesn’t mean Barzal is cheap. Frankly, his talent and importance to the islanders probably justify a salary that exceeds his maximum space.
Even at a discount, the islanders won’t have much room to retain another top player in RFA defender Ryan Pulock. They probably need to find a way to move some shaky contracts (like Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk’s), which is easier said than done, even for a GM dark arts master like Lamoriello.
Some of the teams below might technically face more immediate and direct challenges. On the other hand, the uncomfortable thought for the islanders is that they could face big bills with diminishing returns.
Quick thoughts on other teams that are likely to be hit hardest by the NHL’s fixed salary cap
You may believe others deserve a mention, so feel free to step in through the comments. Some quick punches before we leave:
- The Boston Bruins could be the highest honor mention. Even if you disagree, you will probably admit that you may feel some pain. If they keep Torey Krug close, then Don Sweeney deserves a raise.
- Moreover, the Bruins are not alone in the honorable mentions. Much has been made of the Vancouver Canucks, who may feel squeeze enough to explain those Brock Boeser trade rumors, even if someone else ends up being the one standing at the end of the NHL’s salary-capped flat musical chairs.
- Washington’s capitals face a puzzle with Braden Holtby, for sure. They should also try to discover the future of Alex Ovechkin, whose long contract was not as long as it seemed (ends after 2020-21).
- The Chicago Blackhawks are required to have boundary issues. That is simply the rule that we all must abide by. In the last iteration, it is difficult to know what could happen to your target situation.
- Again, this could be fodder for a future post, but opportunistic rebuilding teams could feast on being creative. Why not take some short-term pain in the form of shaky contracts for long-term gains on future assets, particularly if you don’t expect your team to be very good anyway? A little further ahead, the NHL’s flat / barely moving salary limit could also be a boon to the Seattle expansion team.
Who else will feel the crisis? Would you rank honorable mentions in the top five or outperform others? You say.
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James O’Brien He is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Leave a line at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.
