Will a Biden presidency be good or bad for New Zealand?

The presidency of Donald Trump has been a challenge to New Zealand’s foreign policy. Our commitment to multilateral solutions to global problems has met with a new isolationism in the United States.

Infamously, Trump resigned from the World Health Organization and the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. During a global pandemic and with an environmental crisis looming, America’s leadership has been lacking.

However, if Joe Biden is elected on November 3, some sort of realignment might be possible. New Zealand policymakers will be watching several key areas closely.

Climate and health

Trump’s exit from the Paris Agreement was significant for the abandonment of the U.S. emissions target, but possibly more so for the loss of leadership and financial support needed to foster sustainability in the developing world.

New Zealand has committed to zero net carbon emissions by 2050. This goal is shared by Biden, who would also re-commit to the Paris Agreement and the WHO.

Biden has even pointed out that he can use trade deals to fight global warming. This would be a major shift in US trade policy and could have implications for agricultural countries like New Zealand with methane-rich exports.

Trade agreements

New Zealand is committed to free trade and a rules-based international order, but Trump seemed determined to destroy the World Trade Organization (WTO), especially after he ruled that his current dispute with China over trade was illegal.

Biden may show more restraint at the WTO, but neither he nor Trump is likely to promote a long-desired free trade agreement (FTA), despite the United States being New Zealand’s third-largest trading partner.

Trump smashed the former closer to an FTA, the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA). But he signed a new agreement that made it easier for Kiwi entrepreneurs in the United States.

Although Biden is unlikely to differ from Trump on some trade issues (such as with China), it is possible that he will revisit the TPPA.

The divisions between Trump, Biden and New Zealand interests are much larger over the gun control treaties. New Zealand’s nuclear-weapon-free commitments run counter to the global instability caused by recent US actions.

Gun control

Trump resigned from the Open Skies Agreement (designed to allow transparency and verification in monitoring arms build-ups), as well as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Agreement (which kept European short- to medium-range ground-based nuclear missiles under control. ).

The so-called new START treaty, which controls 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons held by the United States and Russia, is now hanging by a thread, with a possible stay of execution for a year beyond its expected expiration date. early 2021..

Trump also resigned from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, even though Iran was complying with its provisions. When the United States assassinated Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Iraq, Iran responded by firing missiles at US bases.

Trump chose to stop and not risk a bloody regional conflict, but his reckless gamble put New Zealand soldiers stationed in the Middle East at high risk.

Biden would be less volatile. He wants to see if the nuclear deal can be reactivated. He’s also more likely to try to save New START, despite his misgivings about Russia.

Anything that prevents the total collapse of the international arms control architecture will benefit everyone. For New Zealand, it would mean that nuclear-weapon-free foreign policy was once again in tune with global goals.

War and peace

Trump has pushed three Middle Eastern nations to normalize relations with Israel, ended US involvement in Syria, and tried to break out of the Afghanistan quagmire.

He also got a promise to denuclearize North Korea, although this is an empty promise, more of a pause than a peace sign on an intergenerational issue. Biden may not do much better, but his negotiating approach likely differs, moving away from the approach driven by Trump’s personality.

Biden would avoid a complete exit from Afghanistan and Iraq, fearing the consequences of any resulting power vacuum. He also has a history of strong support for Israel, though he is likely more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause than Trump.

Overall, the military and strategic differences between the two White House candidates are not huge. Neither seriously undermines the configuration of New Zealand’s foreign policy. If there is tension, it is probably from China.

Neither Trump nor Biden are likely to improve relations between the United States and China. If anything, Biden may be more aggressive and push more for a multilateral approach to punishing China for everything from trade infractions to human rights abuses.

For New Zealand, which is slow to act against China, its biggest trading partner, some of the toughest foreign policy challenges are yet to come, whoever is in the White House next.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

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