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The northern hemisphere winter solstice may have passed, but in the land of Covid-19 the nights are still getting longer. In recent weeks, two variants of the coronavirus have spread with fierce speed in Britain and South Africa. They have mutations that make them much more contagious. Although, so far, they do not appear to be more lethal, for every 10 people the older variants would infect in Britain, the newer infects 15. Early data suggest that the South African variant burns just as fiercely.
Right now, the world is rightly focused on approving, manufacturing, and administering vaccines. Unfortunately, it must also face the fact that before the coups come to the rescue, new variants will spread, creating profound difficulties for policy makers.
Evolutionary biologists have shrugged off the appearance of mutations: This is how viruses behave, because natural selection favors the most transmissible and least deadly variants. Some viruses that cause common colds may have started as badly as sars-cov-2 and moderate in their old age. Legislators cannot afford to be so relaxed. A more transmissible Covid-19 virus that is just as dangerous as this variant means that hospitals may be overwhelmed. In England, most of the population has been practically blocked for weeks. However, Covid-19 patients in hospitals have now passed the peak in April and the health service is struggling to cope.
Michel Euler / AP
The northern hemisphere winter solstice may have passed, but in the land of Covid-19 the nights are still getting longer.
Much of the rest of the world will soon follow, including Europe and America. More than 50 countries rushed to ban travelers from Britain as soon as its scientists informed the world about the new variant, in mid-December. Many have also banned arrivals from South Africa. However, these measures are likely to save you little time. In early November, before the travel bans, the British variant already accounted for nearly 30 percent of cases in London, one of the world’s most connected cities. Considering how the first variants spread from the ski resorts of the Alps last winter and from Spain in the summer, it is naive to believe that the cases are not already seeded throughout Europe and beyond. Once it arrives, the new British variant is likely to displace local strains within a few weeks.
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So far, only sporadic cases have been found in about 20 countries, including in the United States in a man who had not traveled. But that’s because, unlike Britain and South Africa, most do little genomic sequencing to look for mutations. France has tested the virus fewer times throughout the pandemic than Wales in a week. Most countries don’t look at all. Therefore, other, more contagious variants can spread undetected.
The good news is that these mutations are unlikely to re-infect people who have had the disease or to avoid current Covid-19 vaccines. Natural selection will eventually start to change that, as more and more people are vaccinated, but vaccines can be modified to remain effective. With the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the process takes just six weeks.
Between now and then
Yet even in the mostly wealthy countries that have accumulated vaccine supplies, there won’t be enough to stop the spread of the virus, at least until the summer. This week’s emergency approval of the AstraZeneca-Oxford jab will help, but there will still be delays. The poorest and middle-income countries will remain less protected for much longer.
Countries in Europe and beyond will be forced to grapple with this rapidly changing reality by re-evaluating the trade-offs between the benefits of the tough lockdowns needed to stop a more contagious virus and its long-term costs to education, health and health. livelihoods. There is still light at the end of the tunnel. But the road through it has become much more dangerous.
© 2020 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist published under license. The original article can be found at www.economist.com
