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Most of the country looks likely to rain in the middle of next week, with early indications suggesting that the likelihood of rain, or even rain on Christmas Day, is higher in inland areas and further south.
But there is a slim chance that the north of the country, where the soils are considerably drier than usual, will receive a decent rain towards the end of next week.
Any chance of that happening is believed to depend on whether the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Yasa, which ripped through Fiji overnight, ends up bringing warm, humid air over New Zealand. The chances of that happening are low, but cannot be ruled out.
Dominico Zapata / Waikato Times
There is a week to go until Christmas and it looks like some parts of the country will have beach weather, but that could still change.
If it were to happen, the rain, although welcome, could fall next Friday.
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For now, MetService believes Northland is more likely to see rain next Thursday, with no other rain suggestion on the horizon.
For Auckland, where there are concerns about the amount of water used after restrictions were lifted on Monday, MetService forecasts rain for Thursday and then dry weather for Christmas.
On Friday morning, MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris said the rain expected in the middle of next week will be triggered by a low in the Tasman Sea.
“At this point, the thing to keep in mind is that there is a minimum in the Tasman Sea. That is what they are seeing with the country receiving a lot of rain everywhere on Thursday, ”he said.
ALDEN WILLIAMS / Stuff
Conditions are getting drier in Canterbury, where a fire broke out in Port Hills last Friday.
That low was expected to still be pretty far off by late Tuesday. “So it moves pretty fast. We see that the rain basically spreads everywhere during the Wednesday-Thursday period, ”Ferris said.
While the models looked “pretty consistent” for now in the forecast, the minimum would pass through the country on Thursday, it was not impossible that the moment could change. Beyond that, Friday’s details varied.
“As of Friday, there is a bit of a divergence as to which places retain some of that humid weather.”
While the lowering of the Tasman Sea was the feature most likely to affect New Zealand’s weather in the run-up to Christmas, there was a “minimal” chance of some impact from the remnants of Cyclone Yasa.
John Kirk-Anderson / Stuff
Dunedin’s chance of a sunny Christmas isn’t looking good, for now.
Previously, there was considerable uncertainty about the path Yasa would take, with some hints that it could reach New Zealand, Ferris said.
But there was “a little more cohesion” between the models on Friday morning, suggesting that it would remain in the north of this country.
One model indicated that the debris from the cyclone could bring some warm, humid air over New Zealand. There is a possibility that the air will interact with the low forecast to cross the country next week, Ferris said.
“At this point, if there were any impacts (from the cyclone debris), it would most likely be heavy rains around the top of the North Island.” If that happened, it would be sometime between Wednesday and Friday of next week.
By now, the weather forecasts for Christmas Day were being compiled by computers. That would change on Sunday when MetService meteorologists get involved.
The areas forecast by MetService on Friday morning that will be dry on Christmas Day include: Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Taranaki, Whanganui, Wellington, Marlborough, Nelson.
Areas forecast to have rain: Rotorua, Taupō, Taihape, Manawatu, Wairarapa, Buller, Westland, Canterbury, North Otago, Central Otago, Southern Lakes.
Rain forecast areas: Dunedin, Clutha, Southland.
