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David White / Stuff
New Zealand recorded its warmest winter in 2020.
Warm winters are becoming a recurring theme in New Zealand.
This year’s winter peaked at 1.14 degrees Celsius above average, making it the warmest on record.
Niwa has been recording seasonal averages for 111 years, but seven of the 10 warmest winters occurred in the 21st century. The previous record was made in 2013 when the seasonal average increased by 1.08C.
“That really shows a trend,” said NIWA forecaster Ben Noll.
MetService
MetService expects “three-part performance” for the next 48 hours.
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It is a trend that is likely to continue in the future due to the continuing effects of climate change.
“2020 [is] a bit of a dress rehearsal for the winters to come.
“When we have the same conversation in 2040, we would expect the record that we see here in 2020 to be challenged,” Noll said. Stuff.
That doesn’t mean that colder than average winters will never happen, but they will become an exception to the rule rather than the norm.
JOHN BISSET / Stuff
Timaru recorded the warmest daily temperature with 25.1 ° C on August 30.
“More winters are expected above that trend line.”
No below-average monthly temperature has been recorded for 43 months. Noll described this as an exceptional streak.
By comparison, 70 locations across the country experienced record or near record warmth.
The likes of Kerikeri, Port Tahora, Rotorua and Martinborough experienced record average temperatures of 12.9 C, 12.7 C, 9.5 C and 9.6 C, respectively.
The warmest recorded temperature was 25.1 ° C in Timaru on August 30, the lowest was -12.3 ° C in Middlemarch on June 14. in the country.
The warm trend is expected to extend into spring this year as well. Noll said the team is again predicting a warmer-than-average season.
Noll attributed this record winter to a number of variables: an increase in subtropical northeast winds, above-average sea surface temperatures, and above-normal atmospheric pressure.
All of these variables have some attribution to climate change, which is another cause of the hot season, according to Noll.
“That’s the one we can act on and I think over time we will find that we may not be acting fast enough.”
Niwa’s seasonal climate summary also featured regional highlights for rain and dry conditions.
Floods in Northland in July resulted in the highest rainfall event in a day. Kaikohe and Whangarei each logged 262mm and 251mm, respectively, on July 17. Noll noted that these amounts are the highest recorded for both regions.
In total, Kaikohe recorded 935mm of rain throughout the season, 187% more rain than normal.
In contrast, Reefton’s lack of rain caused the region to mark its second driest winter on record. Throughout the season, only 291mm of rain was recorded, or 54% of normal rates.
Noll said dry conditions have affected many parts of the country, including Hawke’s Bay and the Wairarapa region. He explained that it was unusual for the country to come out of winter with such dry conditions.
All fluctuating conditions return to the topic of climate change. Noll said that if the problem remains unchanged and conditions worsen, we will inevitably continue to see more and more records in all aspects of weather.
