Waikato farmers fear Labor-Green coalition after election

Waikato farmers fear a Labor-Green coalition after Labor’s crushing result in Saturday’s general election.

But despite the suggestion that rural voters flagged Labor to prevent Greens from taking office, one political scientist says the red tide is not solely due to tactical voting.

The predominantly rural constituencies in the region, including Waikato and Taranaki-King Country, remained blue.

But in both, national MPs Tim van de Molen and Barbara Kuriger remained in power with a significantly smaller majority than in 2017.

The party’s vote in both constituencies was also hand-to-hand: in Waikato National it won the party’s vote over Labor by just 38 votes.

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“Obviously some farmers voted for Labor,” said Waikato Federation Farmers President Jacqui Hahn.

“I think part of the swing could have been trying to keep the Greens out.”

Hahn had heard discussions around the council table that farmers would vote red tactically, although he did not personally know any who did.

He said the Greens’ push for organic and regenerative agriculture, as well as their proposed ban on palm kernel imports, were big concerns for farmers.

Aroha farmer Andrew McGiven agreed.

“I hope that Labor will ignore the economic and social policies of the Greens and that Labor will retain the majority, without requiring the support of the Greens.”

Lichfield dairy farmer Gray Baldwin said the prospect of a Labor-Green coalition was a “bit scary.”

Baldwin, who has significantly built wetlands on his property, said he was sympathetic to environmental policies, but that some of Los Verdes’ ideas were a bit “extreme.”

“If palm kernels are banned, our agricultural system would be under the bomb.

“I heard one or two farmers say that they would rather vote for Jacinda to govern alone than have the Green Party on the inside.

“The question is whether he does it now.”

He voted for Nacional in the Taupō electorate and also saw a majority cut from Louise Upston from Nacional, he said.

The result was “disappointing, but not surprising.”

He didn’t like National’s idea of ​​ditching freshwater standards.

Improving the environment is essential for future generations, as is protecting the price of New Zealand milk, he said.

But he wanted National in power because of his support for business.

University of Waikato political lecturer Justin Phillips said the tactical vote could not fully explain the move to Labor.

Take the data from the latest Colmar Brunton poll, where Jacinda Ardern achieved a 74% public approval rating.

“This is a really important figure because, in essence, what you are saying is that maybe I do not support this person or this party, but I approve of what they are doing.”

“One could look at this and suggest that his handling of the pandemic (among other things) could be one of the reasons for the change we’ve seen in the party’s vote.”

The tactical vote could not explain why National lost long-held electoral seats in Nelson and Ilam, for example.

Phillips said the idea of ​​voters leaving National to vote tactically could be a strategy to limit the damage to the party.

“If National Party members can convince their supporters that they have only lost temporarily due to tactical voting, they are much more likely to avoid further loss of support in the future.”