US Elections: Why Should We Care If Donald Trump or Joe Biden Win?

Four years after the election of Donald Trump reshaped how many nations interacted with the United States, the way the world’s most important superpower advances after its presidential election can affect many geopolitical pressure points, whether the victor is Trump or his Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden.

From Iran to Cuba, from China to Israel, American participation and influence on the international stage has evolved dramatically since Trump took office in 2017.

He swept away agreements with some nations, alienated long-standing allies and withdrew from multilateral obligations that he said did not serve America’s interests.

Although the international community has at times criticized Trump’s tenure in “America First,” underscored by the president’s focus on the coronavirus pandemic, there were already places, issues, and conflicts in which US involvement was not always appreciated. , under his predecessor, Barack Obama. and other recent American leaders.

Before the pandemic hit in early 2020, the most serious global concern was whether Washington and Tehran were on the cusp of a ruinous war that would inflame the Middle East.

While that has waned, many around the world are watching closely to see what happens next, and who will live in the White House in three months.

Here’s a look at some key issues whose direction will, in part, be driven by who wins the US presidency.

Virus geopolitics

The Nobel Peace Prize, won by Obama while in office, was something Trump had longed for himself. But the honor went to the UN World Food Program this month.

It was a resounding endorsement of a multilateral effort, the main message of the United Nations, during a pandemic that has caused severe food insecurity in the world.

“We are sending a signal to this kind of nationalism where responsibility for global affairs is not faced,” said Nobel committee chair Berit Reiss-Andersen.

In the era of the pandemic, Trump lashed out at the World Health Organization and largely rejected multilateralism, as did like-minded leaders like Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro and Britain’s Boris Johnson who, like Trump, downplayed the coronavirus. and were infected by it.

With the United States still in the grip of the virus and more than 220,000 Americans dead, a rebound hitting Europe, and sustained infections in India, Iran and beyond, these remain precarious days.

Containing the virus, making a vaccine available, and international coordination around it, with the United States as a major player, will be critical for the world to see a light at the end of a dark tunnel.

Battle of the superpowers

The resurgence of Russia and the rise of China have ended a post-Cold War period in which Washington was the sole superpower.

Trump has made efforts to maintain relations with Vladimir Putin’s Russia despite confirmation by his own intelligence agencies of Moscow’s interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, which sought to help him, and accusations that Russia offered bounties in secret for American deaths in Afghanistan.

Biden has said that he is putting Russia and other foreign governments “on notice” that he will act aggressively as president to counter any interference in the US elections.

China has become the focus of Trump’s criticism in recent months. He has imposed punitive fees, made racist comments about the origins of the virus in Wuhan, and took action on cybersecurity issues.

But whether Trump or Biden are in office for the next four years, Washington’s relations with Beijing appear to continue their thorny as China flexes more and more internationally.

Agreements, allies and adversaries

Trump has struggled to move away from the Iran nuclear pact from the Obama administration and world powers. He called it the “worst deal ever” and withdrew, which delighted Israel and Saudi Arabia but dismayed others.

The United States then killed Iran’s most important military figure, General Qassem Soleimani, in Baghdad. Iran responded with a ballistic missile attack on Iraqi bases that housed US troops.

The administration’s decision to blacklist Iran’s financial sector, as part of wide-ranging sanctions, signals the US leadership during a second Trump term.

Biden, who was vice president of the more multilateral Obama, could re-engage with allies who have actively opposed Trump’s policy, and potentially with Iran itself.

When it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Trump’s self-proclaimed “deal of the century” did not sit well with the Palestinians when it was released earlier this year.

It effectively gave the green light to Israeli annexation in the occupied West Bank, ending notions of the two-state solution and upending decades of official US policy regarding settlements.

Because of this, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a leader who will be watching these elections closely.

Under Trump, America’s relations with the European Union and NATO have also hit major bumps. Many Europeans and their governments remain deeply committed to these multilateral blocs.

Biden, heir to a foreign policy tradition more in line with other American leaders since World War II, has said he would take a more conciliatory approach to his longtime allies.

Trump had hoped that his astonishing approach to North Korea’s Kim Jong Un was his trademark foreign policy legacy. But the summits were huge on show and produced no tangible results while giving Kim some of the status he craved.

Little public attention has been paid to the effort in recent months, and if the above policy is any indication, Biden would not court more summits.

U.S. military presence abroad

Trump has lamented America’s “endless wars” and vowed to end them. But the US military was surprised by its latest claim that all US troops will be out of Afghanistan by the end of the year.

Trump’s comments disturbed the US military and diplomats, some of whom say setting a final date for troop withdrawal could prevent a peace deal between the Taliban and the Afghan government.

Biden says that troops must withdraw responsibly and that there must be a residual force left to combat extremism.

Trump has also demanded that US troops withdraw from their ally Germany, where they have been based for decades, pushing the Pentagon into a plan that will cost billions of dollars and take years to complete.

A cut in US troops has also been announced in South Korea. Trump has criticized allies who, according to him, do not contribute as much as the United States.

Little indicates that Biden would see things the same way.