US Elections: The Spooky Prediction That Came True and What Could Happen Next

An American law professor wrote a haunting prediction about Donald Trump’s electoral defeat and his refusal to accept his defeat more than a year ago, with furious tweets in capital letters.

The article, written by Edward B Foley and published in Chicago’s Loyola University Law Review, strikingly echoes what has unfolded since election night.

And what the professor anticipated would happen next is terrifying.

Foley’s fictional account features Trump at the helm in Pennsylvania, then lagging behind and then issuing furious tweets saying his election is being stolen.

In an imaginary tweet, Foley has Trump exhorting, “STOP THIS THEFT RIGHT NOW !!!” “DON’T LET THIS CHOICE STEAL FROM YOU !!!”

Then: “THIS THEFT WILL NOT REMAIN !!!” “WE ARE RECOVERING OUR VICTORY.”

Foley, an election law scholar and former Ohio attorney General, wrote the article before Joe Biden was selected as the Democratic nominee, when Elizabeth Warren was touted as the front runner.

The article was published around October 2019 for the winter 2019 issue of Loyola University Chicago Law Journal.

Here is an excerpt:

“It is the night of the 2020 elections.

“This time all eyes are on Pennsylvania, as whoever wins the state of Keystone will win the majority of the Electoral College.

“Trump is leading the state by 20,000 votes, and he’s tweeting ‘The race is over. Another four years to make America great again.’

“The Associated Press (AP) and the networks have yet to declare Trump the winner.

“Although 20,000 is a considerable advantage, they have learned in recent years that the numbers can change before the final official certification of the election results.

“They are afraid to ‘call’ the election for Trump, only to find themselves having to back down from the call, as they embarrassingly did twenty years earlier, in 2000.

“Trump’s Democratic opponent, _________ (fill in the blank with your preferred candidate; I will pick Elizabeth Warren as she is currently the favorite based on the prediction markets), is not conceding, claiming the race is still too far close to call.

Both candidates finish the night without going in front of the cameras.

“In the morning, new numbers show that Trump’s lead is beginning to decline, and by noon it is below 20,000.

Impatient, Trump holds an impromptu press conference and announces: ‘I have won re-election. Last night’s results showed that I won Pennsylvania by more than 20,000 votes.

“Those results were complete, with 100 percent of the venues reporting.

“As far as I’m concerned, those results are now final.

“‘I’m not going to allow the politicians in the Philadelphia machine to steal my reelection victory from me, or my voters!’

“Despite Trump’s protests, the normal process of scrutinizing election results continues in Pennsylvania, and updated results continue to show that Trump’s leadership is slipping away.

“First, it drops below 15,000. Then 10,000. Then 5,000.

“As this happens, Trump’s tweets are getting more and more outraged and inflammatory. STOP THIS THEFT RIGHT NOW !!!” “DON’T LET THIS CHOICE STEAL FROM YOU !!!”

“The scrutiny process in Pennsylvania has continued and Trump’s leadership in the state declines further.

“Then several days later, the lead changes. Now, Warren is ahead in Pennsylvania.

“First by a few hundred votes. Then by a couple of thousand votes.

“Although AP and the networks continue to declare that the race ‘is too close to call’, it is Warren’s turn to take the cameras and declare victory.

“Trump insists, over tweet and microphone, ‘THIS THEFT WILL NOT REMAIN !!!” “WE ARE RECOVERING OUR VICTORY.”

Foley’s article, titled Preparing for a Contested Presidential Election: An Electoral Risk Assessment and Management Exercise, envisions the so-called “blue shift” in the 2020 vote.

This makes in-person vote counted first, favoring Republicans, and mail-order votes counted later, favoring Democrats.

This causes a shift to the left later in the vote counting process and leaves some observers questioning the legitimacy of the result if the Democrats win.

The blue shift traditionally occurs because young voters, low-income voters, and voters who move often are likely to vote by mail and are likely to lean Democrats. In 2020, the coronavirus added to the picture, with Joe Biden urging voters to cast their votes by mail to protect their health.

Foley writes that the blue shift did indeed occur in Pennsylvania in 2016, when Hillary Clinton got 23,659 votes, reducing Trump’s lead from 67,951 in the state to 44,292.

It was not enough to change Pennsylvania to Clinton.

In 2020, Foley writes, “Trump would go to court in an effort to avoid canvassing certification based on the blue change ‘overtime’ vote.”

His prediction of what happens next in his fictional Trump v Warren account is chilling.

Warren is declared the winner, but when the Electoral Council meets, as scheduled for next month, on December 14, the voters promised by the Republicans cast their 20 electoral votes for Trump.

When Congress meets on January 6, 2021 to count the electoral votes of the states, there are two conflicting results and two winners.

“If … Trump can gain ground with his claim that the blue switch equates to fraudulently fabricated votes, then it is more politically feasible to claim that the legislature should step in and appoint state voters directly to reflect the ‘true’ will of the state. voters, who would otherwise be deprived of the outcome they demanded as reflected on election night, “writes Foley.

“The two parties are turning to cable news and social media to test various arguments as to why their candidate is the winner with the right to be inaugurated as president on January 20.”

Foley’s article is long and detailed, but basically both Republicans and Democrats continue to claim that they won the election and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is stepping in as interim president-elect.

“Trump announces that he is proceeding to prepare to be inaugurated for a second term on January 20, as is Ms. Pelosi,” Foley writes.

“As the clock ticks toward noon on January 20, all of DC – indeed, the entire United States – is in confusion about what will happen.

“None … are backing down.

Both insist that at noon on January 20 they will take the presidential oath and begin to assert the powers of commander-in-chief.

“They both demand the full support and obedience of the US military in taking the presidential oath.”

In Foley’s account, Pelosi warns the military, FBI and other federal security forces not to refuse to obey her orders as interim president beginning at noon on January 20.

If that happens, Foley says “the American people must take to the streets in mass demonstrations to show that their democracy will not be stolen from them.”

Foley then asks, “What is the military going to do after noon on January 20? Who should the military recognize as commander-in-chief?”

“Who should get ‘nuclear football’ with the launch codes, Trump or Pelosi?”

Foley concludes that Americans must hope that the nightmare scenario he paints is never fulfilled.

“Instead, the nation will be well served if the outcome of the 2020 presidential election is so lopsided that it is impossible to dispute,” he writes.