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New Zealand will benefit from Joe Biden’s presidency, but such a shift in US leadership could further challenge relations with China and the Pacific countries.
Presidential candidate Biden appeared to be heading for victory in Thursday morning’s US elections. The Democrat was closing in on a victory in key states, but incumbent President Donald Trump vowed to challenge the final vote count in court.
At a party at the US embassy in Wellington on Wednesday afternoon, Ambassador Scott Brown said the relationship between New Zealand and the United States was unlikely to be affected “at all” by the outcome.
Carolyn Kaster / AP
Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden has said he is heading to the White House.
But foreign policy experts say that Biden would turn the United States back to international organizations, possibly join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement, and likely push New Zealand to be more strident against the superpower’s enemy: China.
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Massey University professor Rouben Azizian, director of the university’s center for defense and security studies, said Brown was saying “what any ambassador will say.”
“New Zealand was doing its best to maintain a good relationship with the United States, but it was very difficult,” he said of the relationship under the Trump administration.
Azizian said that the fact that Trump stepped down and effectively ended the TPP before it started was “a significant blow” to New Zealand’s national interests.
Covid-19 had exacerbated the tension, as New Zealand’s handling of the virus made it the target of sarcastic comments from Trump.
Azizian said there was some tension between Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and former Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ views on the United States, and that Peters was more sympathetic to Trump than to Ardern.
A possible Biden presidency “would eliminate some of these challenges. It will be a left-wing government, like Labor here. Biden will be a stabilizer [force] to US foreign policy, less to this erratic foreign policy of social media, “said Azizian.
Evan Vucci / AP
President Donald Trump has also won the election and has baselessly alleged that electoral fraud has taken place.
“Basically, the relations continue to be friendly in general and have more convergence than divergence … It could be topic by topic, but general convergence will benefit.”
Dr. Anna Powles, senior professor of security studies at Massey University, said that under President Biden, there would likely be more pressure on New Zealand to align with the United States’ position on China in the Pacific.
Biden is likely to take a more consistent foreign policy approach than Trump and with the US focus on the Pacific, called the “Pacific Compromise,” this could lead to more requests to New Zealand.
“That obviously is a concern about how it plays out in the Pacific … There is already growing pressure on New Zealand to align its policies on China with those of the United States … More pressure, more competitive questions on New Zealand , ”Powles said.
This could complicate New Zealand’s relations with Pacific Island nations that weren’t as keen to counter China’s influence in the Pacific.
But a renewed focus on climate change policy that could come under Biden would be “really positive” and welcome in the Pacific.
Trade expert Charles Finny, a former diplomat, said he met Biden when the vice president visited New Zealand four years ago and that he had very positive views of New Zealand.
“President Trump also has very positive views on New Zealanders, I think because of golf, but also because he had a good trip to New Zealand several years ago.”
If Biden won, his administration would not seize power until January, and in the meantime, Trump would continue to play hard on issues like the United States’ veto of a candidate for director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO) that was supported by the majority. from the other countries. .
Such actions were important to New Zealand, which as a small nation depended on the WTO to maintain the rules of international trade.
Biden would be more predictable and willing to be a part of these international processes, Finny said, and he had supported the TPP.
But if Biden, as president, could get the United States to sign the TPP, he could rely on the US Senate, which would likely be led by Republicans after the election and could act as a “hand brake” on any reform.
