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The New Zealand-China relationship may come under pressure if Joe Biden wins the US presidency, as he is expected to pressure Pacific allies to take a tougher line against the rising superpower.
The Democratic presidential candidate looked likely to win the U.S. presidency Thursday night as he was closing in on a majority in several key states. President Donald Trump made unsubstantiated allegations that electoral fraud had occurred and his campaign filed lawsuits to stop the counting of votes in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Trump has been a destabilizing force for US foreign policy, announcing the withdrawal of troops from Syria on Twitter, withdrawing from trade agreements, climate change agreements, and international bodies, including the World Health Organization, and it has escalated a trade war with China.
In many of these areas, Trump has been prepared to go it alone, forgoing multilateralism to advance his own agenda. His approach has contravened international norms and forced allied governments to perform diplomatic gymnastics.
But a Biden presidency would maintain the tough focus on China, while potentially bringing a number of problems.
It has been touted as a return to the more conventional US foreign policy that would favor traditional alliances. But in New Zealand, experts say Biden could push New Zealand’s relationship with China to more “zero-sum” moments.
fake images
US President Donald Trump, pictured with Chinese President Xi Jinping, has led a foreign policy platform that has been criticized as incoherent. But if Biden wins the presidency, New Zealand foreign policy watchers say the United States will be more organized in its opposition to China’s rise, and there will be greater expectation that New Zealand will take a tougher line.
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Associate Professor David Capie, director of the Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Victoria, said China’s rise had challenged the status quo in Asia and the Pacific, regions where strategic dominance had been beneficial to the United States and its allies during decades.
“We are seeing a more assertive China willing to expand the borders in terms of sovereignty of its neighbors,” he said.
A Biden administration would not mark a “sea change” in the US approach to China, but it would be more organized, more persuasive and more willing to ask allies and partners to help in the competition with China, he said.
“The Trump administration has been so disorganized and chaotic, and so erratic, that in some countries you can keep your head down and avoid being drawn into some of the more acute aspects of this competition,” Capie said.
“There will be some aspects of the US-China relationship in the years to come that will force New Zealand into some more zero-sum decision points … where a clearer decision needs to be made,” he said.
Petty Officer 3rd Class Jason Tarleton / AP
The USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Groups sail together in formation in the South China Sea. The sea is a point of contention in the relationship between the United States and China, and New Zealand could be further embroiled in the conflict between the countries if Joe Biden wins the presidency of the United States.
New Zealand could be asked to speak out more against China, to align itself with the American perspective in international institutions, or, at the “sharper end,” to work closely on maritime operations in the Pacific or in the controversial South China Sea.
Dr. Anna Powles, senior professor of security studies at Massey University, said that under Biden’s presidency, there would likely be more pressure on New Zealand to align with the United States’ position on China in the Pacific.
“There is pressure to do so already, but because foreign policy coming from Washington has been quite contradictory and confusing, that has allowed New Zealand to practice a degree of strategic ambiguity,” he said.
While the Trump administration has urged its allies to follow suit on issues like the exclusion of Huawei Technologies from its systems, it has not waited to act in concert with traditional partners.
Paul Sancya / AP
Joe Biden is not expected to change the course of US relations with China if he is elected president of the United States.
Biden is more likely to try to forge a united front, so a more coherent foreign policy approach on Biden’s part may lead to more requests from New Zealand, as part of the United States’ approach to the Pacific, called the ” Peaceful”.
“A Biden Administration Is Likely To Lead To A Much More Joint Approach [within the US Government], and that will probably lead to more applications from New Zealand and Australia, and that is a concern in terms of how it will play out in the Pacific, “Powles said.
This could complicate New Zealand’s relations with Pacific Island nations that weren’t as keen to counter China’s influence in the Pacific.
But a renewed focus on climate change policy that could come under Biden would be “really positive,” and would be welcome in the Pacific, he said.
