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At least three severe tropical cyclones are forecast for the Pacific in the next six months, and New Zealanders are urged to be vigilant.
In total, up to 10 tropical cyclones are forecast within the Southwest Pacific Basin, NIWA and MetService assessments show.
Meteorologist Ben Noll said New Zealand and New Caledonia are forecast to experience the brunt of the cyclone season.
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The risk of tropical cyclones in New Zealand and New Caledonia is high in the coming season.
Almost normal activity is anticipated in Tokelau, Fiji, Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea, while it is slightly reduced in Tonga, Wallis, Futuna and Samoa.
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“At least three severe cyclones that reach category three or more can occur anywhere in the region, so communities must remain prepared,” he said.
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Meteorologist Ben Noll says the forecast is to alert people to be prepared for cyclone season.
On average, at least one extropical cyclone passes within 350 miles of New Zealand each year, but next season poses twice the risk, Noll said.
“If an extropical cyclone approaches the country, there is an almost equal probability that it will move east or west of the North Island, and it is possible that a degrading extropical cyclone will make landfall.
“There is no threat of a cyclone immediately on the horizon, this is a warning that it could occur, and usually in the latter part of the season, from February to April.”
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The season’s forecast shows that New Zealand is looking to experience two category three cyclones in the latter part of the season.
Heavy rains, extreme winds, dangerous marine conditions and coastal damage are possible before and during cyclones.
“All communities, regardless of changes in tropical cyclone risk, must remain vigilant and be aware if the regional climate situation changes,” said Noll.
As with most years, tropical cyclone activity is expected to increase during the second half of the season, from February to April.
Tropical cyclone activity at the beginning of the season is anticipated to be greatly reduced, except near Fiji, and a potential onset of cyclonic activity may also occur near or after the New Year.
