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The prospect of travel bubbles opening between New Zealand and Australia is “increasingly likely” provided the government is confident in two areas, aviation analysts say.
Forsyth Barr analysts Andy Bowley and Scott Anderson said in their most recent research note that, with new Covid-19 case numbers in all Australian states and territories except Victoria now consistently at low levels, the prospect of bubbles with New Zealand were increasingly likely.
But it depended on the New Zealand government to trust that states had eliminated Covid-19 and that states bordering Victoria had enough controls to ensure low risk of interstate transmission.
Victoria has been experiencing a second deadly wave of Covid-19 since May, which has resulted in nearly 800 deaths and months of strict lockdown conditions.
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On Wednesday, Australia reported 17 new Covid-19 cases, of which 13 were in Victoria and four in New South Wales.
On the same day, New Zealand reported a new case of Covid-19 that was imported and managed in isolation.
Lawrence Smith / Stuff
Air New Zealand currently flies from Auckland to Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne, but the opening of a trans-Tasman bubble could add to that list.
At Air New Zealand’s annual meeting on Tuesday, President Dame Therese Walsh told shareholders that she did not know when a bubble would open and that it was in the hands of politicians.
“The key for us at Air New Zealand is to make sure that we are really well prepared for whether that will happen tomorrow or nine months from now,” Walsh said.
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Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Air New Zealand President Dame Therese Walsh were photographed last year at a memorial to the Erebus disaster.
Earlier in the year the airline was optimistic that a trans-Tasman bubble would open in September, however those hopes were dashed following the Victoria outbreak and a resurgence of cases in Auckland.
“Now it seems to be closer to Christmas or maybe beyond,” Walsh said.
Ricky Wilson / Stuff
Air New Zealand CEO Greg Foran said recently that a bubble through Tasmania was unlikely until March.
Last week, Air New Zealand CEO Greg Foran told the Sydney morning herald that non-quarantine travel between Australia and New Zealand was unlikely for at least another six months.
But more recently, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern confirmed that there could be a bubble at Christmas, and did not rule out making separate deals with states and territories with low or no cases.
Last week, experts said Stuff that New Zealand and Australia needed to integrate their Covid-19 contact tracing systems to form a safe travel bubble.
Rapid pre-exit tests could also be a useful tool to incorporate into the overall management of a bubble, they said.
Meanwhile, Air New Zealand, which is a third smaller than before Covid-19, is focusing on being a national airline with a growing international cargo business.
On Tuesday, it provided more information on updating its strategy, which focused on five points:
- Putting People First: Building a Culture of Caring from the Inside Out.
- Experience excellence – shaping your network and products around your most loyal customers.
- Build Loyalty: Strengthen loyalty to create a second engine of growth.
- Do it digital: developing innovative digital products for customers.
- Ambitious action: lead and defend actions on decarbonization, developing a specific roadmap for our network and operations with the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050.
The analysts’ research note on Air New Zealand said Foran’s strategy update was “more refined than radical.”
“There is a less apparent growth emphasis and Pacific Rim’s earlier focus is not mentioned.”
They noted that the airline’s statement of purpose had changed from “Supercharging New Zealand’s success socially, economically and environmentally” to “Enriching our country by connecting New Zealanders with each other and New Zealand with the world.”
Air New Zealand told shareholders that it had withdrawn $ 110 million from a $ 900 million government loan and would be looking to undertake a cash raise in early 2021.
He has $ 215 million in cash on hand and is burning at a rate of $ 65 to $ 85 million a month.
