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New Zealand may mourn the day when the 2020 election turns out to be Winston Peters’ last stand.
“Be careful what you ask for if you want to get rid of Winston Peters, because one day I think we can look back and say, ‘Hey Winston, all is forgiven,'” says Grant Duncan, a political scientist at Massey University.
“Because what replaces Winston’s centrist, populist party could be something more virulent and far-right,” Duncan said. Tick. tick, StuffPodcast of the 2020 elections.
Polls leading up to Saturday’s election show Peters-led NZ First is unlikely to reach the five percent threshold and exit Parliament, which many predict will be the end of the 75-year political career .
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Duncan says Peters, who formed NZ First 27 years ago, has played an important role in New Zealand politics that people might not consider: attracting populist and anti-immigrant voters without actually implementing those policies.
“I can assure you that views that would feed and support a far-right populist party are more prevalent in New Zealand than we would like to think… racist anti-immigrant views are sadly there.
“Winston absorbs all that opinion, but he is not against the system.
“He’s a career politician, he knows how to play and he just knows how to go out there and generate populist opinions.
“And then when you go into coalition negotiations, certain things are off the table.”
RYAN ANDERSON / Stuff
NZ First frontman Winston Peters addresses a crowd in West Auckland.
Duncan believes that the NZ First vote has fractured to both the left and the right.
“So the drop in support for NZ First has partly benefited Labor. But it has also gone to some extent to National-ACT and the new conservatives. “
On the right, meanwhile, it says that National appears to have lost voters to ACT.
National’s chances had been hurt by this year’s leadership revolts, and the campaign’s “not firing” campaign was freeing blue voters to try elsewhere.
“They think, ‘Well now is an opportunity to express our freedom of opinion a little bit, so to speak, and give it a shot, because David Seymour has done a good job.’
“It could be fun to watch, actually, because the people who vote for ACT probably haven’t thought about the consequences.
“David has to learn that he can no longer be the only voice, he has to lead a team. It is not very clear how cohesive his team is. “
Tick. Tick: Stuff’s 2020 Election podcast is hosted by Stuff journalists Adam Dudding and Eugene Bingham.
Subscribe via iTunes, Spotify, Stapler, Google podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.To print, cut out this sentence and replace it: See more at stuff.co.nz/ticktick
Follow Adam or Eugene on Twitter or email them to [email protected].
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