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Following a “zero Covid” strategy is best for health outcomes and the economy, but more countries must commit to the program for leaders to reap the full benefit, a European think tank concluded.
The Institut Economique Molinari, based in Paris and Brussels, said that countries aiming to eliminate Covid – New Zealand, Australia, and South Korea – experienced less severe economic decline than countries that allowed the virus to spread and saturate their health systems.
The Zero Covid strategy was showing “lasting positive effects,” he concluded.
“In the fourth quarter of 2020, the countries that applied this strategy had almost returned to normal economic activity.”
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Its GDP fell just 1.2 percent in the last quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter of 2019, while the decline was 3.3 percent in countries that had not eradicated the virus, it said.
In New Zealand, GDP fell just 0.9 percent between quarters.
Andressa Anholete / Getty Images
GDP falls were almost three times smaller in countries that have aimed to eliminate Covid.
“Stopping the outbreak in a short time at high economic cost, leads to a change to an almost normal condition with only localized episodic outbreaks, similar to extinguishing fires,” the institute said.
“The resulting resumption of economic activity accumulates its benefit over time.”
Even hotel and tourism companies benefited from an elimination strategy, he concluded.
“Google data shows that traffic in cafes, restaurants, hotels, non-food businesses and leisure and cultural activities in general fell by 14% in January and February, compared to 2020, in countries that apply the strategy Zero Covid.
“This is a much smaller decrease than the 35 percent decrease in countries that apply a ‘mitigation strategy’.”
Cross-referencing of quarterly health and economic data confirmed the superiority of the phase-out strategy, he said.
“People in those countries benefit from a level of visibility that allows them to project their societies and economies into the future.”
But the recovery in countries without Covid was to some extent at the mercy of policies in countries where that was not the goal, the institute suggested.
“Recovery is limited only by the failure of other countries to achieve this goal and this should motivate better global collaboration to achieve a shared goal.”
The report recommended that a Covid zero strategy be investigated in France, starting with “pilot projects” in parts of the country when local executives were “receptive to the benefits.”
