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A new, more infectious variant of the Covid-19 virus identified in the UK is highly likely to reach New Zealand’s borders, says one expert.
The new variant is blamed for the faster-than-expected spread of Covid-19 in London, the South East and the East of England, which have been subjected to stricter restrictions over the Christmas holidays.
Several other countries have stopped flights from the UK in an attempt to stop its spread.
But the Health Ministry said on Monday that the specific new strain identified in the UK had not yet been seen in this country.
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Experts in the UK have said there is no evidence that the new strain is more deadly, nor that it will be more difficult to vaccinate against it.
Why is this variant a concern?
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the variant may be up to 70 percent more transmissible than other strains, “although there is considerable uncertainty.”
He said that without the tighter restrictions introduced over the weekend “evidence suggests that infections would increase, hospitals would be overwhelmed and many thousands more would lose their lives.”
It moved some 18 million people in the south of England to a level 4 lockdown, which means that all non-essential shops are closed and people have to stay home unless they have a good reason to be away, which It may include some work and exercise.
AP
Travelers queue up at London’s St Pancras station to catch the last train to Paris, following the announcement of a new strain of Covid-19 that may be far more infectious than other strains.
Despite that, Public Health England has said that there is so far no evidence that the new variant is more likely than other strains to cause serious illness or death.
But because people who died from Covid-19 could become ill for some time before dying, deaths from the virus should be continuously monitored in the coming weeks.
Already outside the UK?
In an attempt to keep the new variant out, several countries have banned flights carrying passengers from the UK and trains have stopped traveling through the Channel Tunnel.
The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control said that Denmark and the Netherlands had reported some cases of the new variant, and that the media also reported in Belgium.
One case was reported in Australia.
Is it coming to New Zealand and should we be concerned?
Epidemiologist Michael Baker said he hoped someone traveling from the UK would bring the new variant to New Zealand.
But it would only be a problem if he crossed the border and started a community outbreak, Baker told RNZ on Monday.
The Health Ministry said on Monday that the specific new strain identified in the UK had not yet been seen in this country.
He said he was confident that New Zealand’s current PPE use, testing strategy and 14-day administered isolation for all arrivals was appropriate, while continuing to review those tools in light of emerging evidence.
Baker warned that every time an infected person entered controlled isolation and quarantine after arriving from abroad, the risk of mistakes that could lead to an outbreak increased.
He said a simple measure to increase New Zealand’s protection would be to add an additional step. Travelers might need a period of controlled isolation before leaving the UK, along with a negative Covid-19 test.
MORNING REPORT / RNZ
Epidemiologist Dr. Michael Baker is calling for tighter restrictions on people entering New Zealand, as Covid-19 emerges abroad.
Will the vaccines still work?
Public Health England also said that there is no evidence that the Pfizer vaccine being launched in the UK does not protect against the new variant.
Work was underway to understand more about the variant, including how well the Pfizer vaccine works against it.
Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, said that while there was no indication that the new strain would elude treatments and vaccines, the mutation was a reminder of the virus’s power to adapt and such changes could not be ruled out in the future.
Much of the pandemic had been predictable until 2020, but the world may be entering a less predictable phase as the virus evolved.
Immunology professor at Imperial College London, Daniel Altmann, said that vaccines available or in development induce neutralizing antibodies that target various parts of the virus, and that most of those parts would not be affected by mutations: ” vaccines will continue to work, “he said.
“From what I can see, this (the spread of the new variant) greatly strengthens the case for everyone to get vaccinated as soon as possible.”
Andrew Harnik / AP
US Vice President Mike Pence receives a Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine at the White House compound on Friday (local time).
Covid-19 mutating ‘quite slowly’
Baker said the changes in the virus weren’t surprising, because there was evolutionary pressure on it. It is constantly changing in little ways.
“There are always many variants floating around and if one is more infectious than others, it will create more virus in the next generation and so on, so that the strain becomes more dominant.”
Infectious diseases researcher at the University of Auckland, Associate Professor Siouxsie Wiles, said the data indicated that the Sars-CoV-2 virus mutated rather slowly.
The UK was doing an incredible job of sequencing the genome of the virus and was skewing the global strain database as a result, Wiles wrote in The spinoff. So while a strain could be identified in the UK, that doesn’t mean it’s not infecting people in other countries, just that the other countries where the lineage might be weren’t doing as much sequencing.
The first genomes of the new variant sequenced in the UK were collected on September 20, Wiles said. Data from a Covid-19 testing lab showed that the number of people infected with the new variant remained fairly stable from October to late November, and then began to take off.
He said that under the Covid-19 restriction system used in the UK, Level 3, the most restrictive level until the weekend, allowed churches, gyms, shops, schools and universities to remain open, even though cinemas were closed. .
He said that the new fourth level was more of a “setting”, with churches, schools and universities still open, and people could meet someone else from another home if they did so outdoors.
High levels of community transmission were likely prompting lineages like the new variant to emerge.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock has told MPs that a new strain of coronavirus has been identified in southern England and that the number of cases related to the new variant is “increasing rapidly”.
The researchers thought that the new variant developed in someone with a suppressed immune system, who was chronically infected, and had shed the virus for months.
“And while chronic infections appear to be very rare, the worse the pandemic gets, the more likely it is that someone somewhere will become chronically infected,” Wiles said.
“And there will be more opportunities for new Sars-CoV-2 lineages to emerge.”
