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OPINION: The Labor Party achieved a historic victory this month, thanks in large part to a leader who provided competent and consistent leadership in dangerous times. The Republican Party in America is on the way to resounding defeat, in large part because of a leader who provided the opposite.
Despite the frequency with which effective leadership is equated with the ability to achieve dramatic change, people value the steadfastness of a leader – someone who appears to be in control, disciplined, and calmly leading us down a sensible path.
Patrick Semansky / AP
Donald Trump and Joe Biden during the second and final presidential debate in Nashville.
This is especially true when our fears increase and the future looks dangerous. When times are especially unstable, people long for stability. They want a feeling that leaders are in command and have things under control.
The opportunity for stability and continuity is one reason incumbent leaders have such an advantage in elections. In the recent United States presidential election in which an incumbent faced a challenger, the incumbent won five of the last seven times. In New Zealand, the ruling party won the most seats in eight of the last 10 elections.
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Of course, providing stability and continuity is not the only advantage a party in power has. They gain visibility just by being in office, consistently attracting media coverage, enhancing familiarity and the perception of seriousness. They are in a position to pass laws that are likely to win favor with the electorate.
By exercising the power of government, they can accumulate tangible achievements, most of the time trumping the mere promises provided by challengers.
Despite those advantages, President Donald Trump is on track to lose the US election because, instead of providing stability, he caused chaos. Instead of calming the fears, it intensified them. And while it attracts enormous media attention, it often squanders opportunities by displaying erratic and undisciplined behavior that exacerbates feelings of instability.
The chaos it generated in the first presidential debate led the Debate Commission to the unprecedented decision to silence the candidates’ microphones while the other responded.
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Ted Zorn: While Trump “attracts tremendous media attention, he often squanders opportunities by displaying erratic and undisciplined behavior that exacerbates feelings of instability.”
Consider the most prominent problem of the year, Covid-19. She agreed or disagreed with Jacinda Ardern’s policies to “do your best and arrive early,” decided on a course of action and set of principles, and stuck to them unwaveringly, providing reassurance that if we stayed the course, we would be fine.
John Key’s equally steadfast hand more than a decade ago pulled us out of the global financial crisis and into three terms in government.
Trump, on the other hand, has dismissed the seriousness of Covid-19 or created chaos. Confronting the media on the issue, he downplayed the issue, exaggerated progress, blamed others, or made bizarre statements, such as insisting on the validity of a discredited treatment (hydroxychloroquine) and speculating on the injection of disinfectants as a cure.
His prodigious Twitter post sowed even more confusion, undermining and contradicting advice given by the health leaders of his own administration. His tweets sometimes actively foster clutter, like his “Liberate Michigan!” From April 17. to support armed protesters angered by the Michigan Governor’s shutdown measures.
The incumbent’s advantage depends on people seeing those in power as in command and moving things in a positive direction. But polls show that only 30 percent of Americans currently believe their country is moving in the right direction. On the contrary, more than 70% of New Zealanders believed that we were going in the right direction just before the elections.
Patrick Semansky / AP
Trump’s desire for stability combined with chaos creates the perfect opening for a seemingly “boring” candidate like Biden, says Ted Zorn.
Trump’s desire for stability combined with chaos creates the perfect opening for a seemingly “boring” candidate like Joe Biden. No one would say that Biden has Ardern’s communication skills or Trump’s flair for gaining media attention.
Of the more than 20 Democratic candidates running in the Democratic primary, he was far from the most fluid, dynamic, or eloquent. It did not deliver the best lines of attack or aftershocks. But it projects what many American voters most want right now, and that is stability. His “unspectacular excellence,” as one writer put it, is his slow and steady approach.
The headline advantage is huge, but as Trump shows, it can be wasted.
Ted Zorn, originally from the USA and with dual New Zealand-American citizenship, is Professor of Organizational Communication and Director of Executive Development at Massey Business School in Auckland.
