[ad_1]
External relationships
After weeks of looking inward to win the votes of New Zealanders, Jacinda Ardern and her government now have to prepare for the challenges of the outside world, writes Sam Sachdeva.
To say that foreign policy generally does not influence the outcome of New Zealand’s elections is to put it mildly.
The historical majority of Labor was unaffected by an extraordinarily bland foreign affairs section in their campaign manifesto (which came late), which offers nondescript commitments such as “continued[ing] promote and develop strong multilateral ties between Aotearoa and our international community ”.
That’s understandable: After all, voters often focus on matters closer to home at best, an approach only accentuated by the figurative shrinking of the world thanks to Covid-19.
But in other respects, the pandemic has increased both the scale of the international challenges New Zealand faces and the need for multilateral cooperation.
With New Zealand First’s departure from Parliament, the foreign affairs and defense portfolios must be completed, and the successors to Winston Peters and Ron Mark have little time to catch up on their briefings before the world starts rushing towards them. .
These are just a few of the big foreign policy problems that Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s government is likely to face in her second term:
The great powers’
Navigating the US-China relationship is not a new problem, but the rivalry, and its continuing effects for New Zealand, is likely to remain on the mind for the next three years.
Exactly who will guide American foreign policy in the years to come is still up in the air: Democratic candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden is the big favorite to unseat Republican President Donald Trump on November 3, but memories of 2016 are too. recent to put too much faith in the polls.
Writing for the United States Study Center of AustraliaUS foreign policy expert Charles Edel suggests that a second Trump term would lead to a president “more unilateral in his actions and less constrained in his impulses,” while a Biden administration “would work to put allies and partners at the center. of the foreign policy of the United States “. ”.
The latter would clearly be more favorable to the Ardern government, but Edel notes that regardless of who is in charge, it is safe to expect a continuation of a tougher approach to China.
And while Trump is probably heading for the door, he’s still causing New Zealand headaches – his nomination of Kiwi businessman Chris Liddell to head the OECD. has put our government in a difficult situation, with National saying we should support a local boy and the Greens pointing to Liddell’s boss’s record of opposing his candidacy.
On the other side of the rivalry, China’s reputation has suffered somewhat from the global community’s opinion on how it has handled the coronavirus pandemic, though it still remains under scrutiny by New Zealand and other nations for human rights abuses in its treatment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang, as well as its focus on Hong Kong and Taiwan.
A long overdue update of the NZ-China FTA was finally agreed in substance late last year – but remains unsigned almost a year later, apparently due to Beijing’s reluctance to opt for a “digital” signature.
At a press conference following the election result, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that “a strong and stable relationship between China and New Zealand serves the fundamental interests of both.”
But the stability of that relationship may be questioned as the United States and China press for influence.
Commerce
In his first term, the Ardern government oversaw the completion of the 11-nation CPTPP trade agreement, albeit without US involvement, along with the aforementioned update to the FTA with China.
The two top business priorities for his second term are somewhat further apart and not without difficulties.
FTA negotiations with the European Union, probably the biggest prize on offer, have run into a series of hurdles, and Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker lashed out in June against The EU’s “miserable” offer for kiwi agricultural exporters.
Parker’s comments did not appear to provoke any sudden change of mind from Europeans, with no movement in the eighth round of talks later that month (although another round is expected before the end of 2020).
Kiwi trade officials have asked exporters to be patient, noting that a certain level of dexterity can be expected from the EU in accessing the market, but the concern or frustration is certainly understandable both between companies and between companies. The ministers.
The Government could direct its efforts towards free trade talks with the UK. Negotiations began in July and a second round began on October 19.
But the UK has its own problems with the EU, facing legal action over proposed legislation which would undermine the withdrawal agreement between the two parties and violate international law.
The ramifications of those fallout, and the outcome of ongoing trade talks between the UK and the EU, could have flow effects on how much each side is willing to give to New Zealand.
The Pacific
At first glance, it appears that the Pacific has coped relatively well with the Covid-19 pandemic.
Samoa, Tonga, and Vanuatu are among the few nations that have avoided even a single case of the virus, while the Cook Islands are now Covid-free and have been pushing hard for a travel bubble with New Zealand.
But that doesn’t take into account the “unprecedented” economic pain across many Pacific nations as a result of border closures and internal restrictions, particularly for those heavily reliant on tourism.
The government announced a $ 55.6 million increase for aid funding in the May budget, but will face pressure to invest more in the Pacific to avoid higher costs, both economic and human, in the future.
In a joint statement Wednesday, aid agencies and community organizations in Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific urged their governments to increase aid funding for the region to better deal with the effect of the Covid closures.
“Without a sufficient increase in international development spending, progress and key indicators of life expectancy, infant mortality, literacy and income across the region will be lost.”
A June cabinet document outlining New Zealand’s foreign policy plan put it even more bluntly: “The Pacific will face serious challenges as a result of the pandemic, even if it manages to keep Covid-19 at bay. New Zealand will have to do more. “
