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The Detail is a daily news podcast produced for RNZ by Press room and is posted on Stuff with permission. Click on this link to subscribe to the podcast.
The election itself may be over, but with nearly 20 percent of the vote yet to come, there is still plenty of room for more parliamentary permutations.
In today’s episode of The detail, Emile Donovan talks to Press room Political editor Sam Sachdeva on why it takes so long to get a final vote count, which electorate seats are still up for grabs, and whether the large number of votes yet to come could substantially affect the makeup of the next legislature.
Few MPs are more familiar with the power of the special vote than Maureen Pugh of National, the self-described “yo-yo MP.”
In both 2014 and 2017, Pugh entered parliament on the National Party list, only to lose his seat a couple of weeks later when the special vote came.
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Now at 19th on the list, it seems certain that Pugh will miss out once more when the specials are tallied and announced on Friday.
“I thought this might have been the third time,” he told Lisa Owen, displaying admirable insight.
“I’ve been here before. It’s just the nature of the beast.
“I’m pretty sure I’ll get out … but I’m never sure how long it will last.”
ALDEN WILLIAMS / Stuff
The election itself may be over, but with nearly 20 percent of the vote yet to come, there is still plenty of room for more parliamentary permutations.
One of the many curiosities about the special vote is that it tends, overwhelmingly, to lean to the left.
“I think that’s because of the kinds of people who are likely to be living abroad, or who will vote outside of their normal constituency, or who might not be organized enough to register before the day of writing,” he says Newsroom.co.nz political editor Sam Sachdeva.
Special votes contributed significantly to Labor taking the reins in 2017.
Despite really wanting to make a call about who would go with NZ First, the then kingmaker, or, as it turned out, the queenmaker, Winston Peters insisted on waiting for the stages to be counted before making his selection.
When the count came in, National lost two seats to the left Labor / Green bloc, making it a much more viable coalition party.
“It’s not that close this time,” says Sachdeva.
“I don’t think we have that kind of maneuver. But you can move the numbers. “
Of course, there are not just implications for the parliamentarians on the list: eight sets of electorates won on election night by less than 1,000 votes, and they could easily change hands: Auckland Central; Invercargill; Maungakiekie; Northern region; Shock; Whangarei; Auckland; and Waiariki.
Sachdeva says Whangārei, currently in the hands of national health spokesman Shane Reti, is the most likely to change, but says the most intriguing subplot is in Waiariki, where Maori Party co-leader Rawiri Waititi has 415 votes. ahead of the current Tāmati. Coffey.
“There is a possibility that the Maori party, if it did well enough in the party vote, could bring in Debbie Ngarewa-Packer as well.”
On the other hand, if Coffey beats Waititi, the Maori party would be left out of parliament entirely.
Big implications and an anxious wait for the candidates.
This written piece is just a sample – for the full story, listen to the podcast above.
