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The forecast for New Year’s Eve revelers is for mostly pleasant weather at midnight, with generally mild winds and temperatures in their mid-teens.
Andy Best, a meteorologist at MetService, says they advise people to bundle up if the night is going to be long.
However, on the South Island, south of roughly Oamaru, people need to prepare for rainy conditions, as a stationary front tied to a low-pressure area stretches across Southland, he says.
A good New Year’s Day is forecast for the North Island, with temperatures close to average for this time of year. Expect 26c at Whangarei, Tauranga 24c, Gisborne 23c, and Wellington 19c.
Clouds and some showers have been spreading south over Northland since Friday night, with isolated showers developing over the Gisborne and Hawkes Bay ranges in the afternoon and evening. Some cloudy periods for the upper half of the South Island, but showers developing at night in Westland and Buller, as well as Canterbury.
Rain in the south falls on Friday and spreads to Ashburton at the end of the night, with some possible thunderstorms starting in the afternoon in the Canterbury foothills. Nelson should rise to 20C, Blenheim to 25C, Christchurch 21C, Dunedin 18C, Queenstown 18C and Invercargill 16C.
There is a Severe Weather Watch in effect for heavy rains in the eastern parts of Otago from tomorrow through Sunday, and there is a possibility that the watch will be updated to a warning as more rain is likely on Saturday.
The low pressure zone over the south of the country becomes dominant during Saturday and Sunday, with fronts and valleys tied to the downside.
On Saturday, Tauranga can expect occasional showers in the morning that become more intense in the afternoon with a high of 24c and a low of 16c.
Temperatures in the upper atmosphere cool down significantly, bringing unstable conditions to most areas of the South Island, although Nelson and Marlborough should keep up well. Unstable conditions hit the North Island on Saturday with occasional rains spreading from the west in the morning, but Hawkes Bay and Gisborne are holding up well. The rains clear the southern half of the island on Saturday afternoon.
On Sunday, rains across most of the North Island, possibly thunderstorms in the afternoon in the north and east, once again cleared the south in the evening. For Tauranga, the rains will be more frequent with the possibility of heavy rain and thunder in the afternoon and a high of 23c and a low of 17c.
The South Island sees rain in the south and west, but well elsewhere, aside from afternoon rains in the ranges.
The potential for afternoon and evening thunderstorms continues across much of the central and upper North Island on Monday, although the southern areas are holding up well.
If it will be okay at first in Tauranga on Monday with a few showers in the morning, these could become intense and thunderous in the afternoon. A maximum of 24c and a minimum of 16 are expected.
Becoming less unstable over the South Island as the low pressure area recedes to the southeast, leaving rains over the west and south of the island, but mostly pleasant weather elsewhere.
