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Another day, another survey on cannabis.
Polls on the cannabis referendum have been inconsistent, with different companies producing wildly different results.
The latest from Horizon Research shows that support for cannabis legalization and control has grown by five percentage points
It found that 52 percent of respondents supported the cannabis control and legalization bill, while 47 percent opposed it, a change from the 49.5 percent tie it recorded in a survey of August.
The latest Horizon poll, which polled 1,481 voters and has a 2.6 percent margin of error, was commissioned by New Zealand medical cannabis company Helius Therapeutics.
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It is the latest poll in two days to show the referendum is on track to pass. A UMR poll commissioned by the Helen Clark Foundation showed a four-point lead for legalization, 49 percent to 45 percent.
Supplied
Polls on the cannabis referendum have been inconsistent across different companies.
The latest One News / Colmar Brunton poll put opponents 18 points ahead.
Conservative pollster David Farrar, who is in favor of legalization, said the inconsistency of the polls was strange.
”The best advice is to do an average of field surveys. If you did that, you would have the vote of No in the lead, ”he said.
Each company weights its samples using different assumptions about voter participation and demographics.
Cannabis legalization polls are considerably stronger among young people than among older voters, so pollsters who assume high youth turnout might show different results.
“That wouldn’t explain a difference of +4 in one poll and -18 in another,” Farrar said.
“I could explain some of that, but not all of it.”
RNZ
Doctors speak out against the position of the Medical Association on the referendum on cannabis.
The wording of particular questions can also produce different results, he said, but most companies have followed the exact wording that will appear on the ballot.
Farrar’s company, Curia Market Research, has conducted weekly polls on the cannabis referendum and consistently returned results showing that the No vote had an advantage of more than 10 points.
