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ANALYSIS: Closing the borders was one of the most important decisions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had to make in her last term.
Now, with another three years in office, navigating the unfamiliar waters of the country’s reopening will be even more difficult.
These are some of the big questions you will face and how they might unfold.
READ MORE:
* Trans-Tasman Bubble: Kiwis await clarification from Australia on interstate travel rules
* Covid-19: Unexpected arrivals to New Zealand inject new irritation into Australian politics
* Australian states are fighting over airline passenger lists to avoid more surprise travelers from the trans-Tasman bubble
Dean Lewins / AAP
A round-trip bubble with all of Australia would be the biggest win.
Is a travel bubble possible with Australia?
With the forecast of dark economic clouds for the next year, the opening of the border with Australia would be a multi-million dollar boost to our economy.
A round-trip bubble with all of Australia would be the biggest win, but it still seems elusive; Especially considering that the tentacles of the devastating Victoria outbreak could last for months, and community cases continue to show up in New South Wales.
If a travel bubble were to occur, the crucial question is …
Mark Baker / AP
Will Jacinda Ardern wait until herd immunity is achieved with the inoculation before fully opening the borders, or will she rely on arriving tourists to have an immunity passport?
Will we subscribe to the Australia hotspot approach?
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison is pushing for interstate travel rules to be relaxed, in favor of a “hot spot approach.” Under the plan, travel would be allowed, unless a city or region is considered a “hot spot.”
Discussions in Australia have stalled because there has been no agreement on the definition of a hot spot. However, if there is consensus, it will be a crucial moment for Ardern. Will we embrace the hot spot approach and open trips to Australia or …
Should New Zealand go state by state and start with Western Australia?
Western Australia has been more successful than New Zealand in fighting Covid-19; almost 200 days have passed without community transmission.
The state seems to be in favor of opening trips only if an area has gone 28 days without community transmission; Ardern has previously advocated for a similar approach. This means that if a state-by-state bubble opens, Western Australia could be the first out of the ranking. But wait…
Chris Skelton / Stuff
The Cook Islands bubble could be ready by the end of 2020.
What about the Cook Islands?
Ardern hinted in the campaign that there could be a travel bubble with the Cook Islands before the end of the year.
Yes, it offers Kiwis a vacation option, but New Zealand tour operators would shudder. Every time a plane takes off for the Cook Islands, hundreds of thousands of tourist dollars that could be spent in the country would fly.
So that raises a question …
Cook Islands or Australia first?
We will likely introduce a travel bubble first, to test the system, and then consider opening another once it has been successful. So does Ardern wait for the more lucrative option and hold out against an Australian state, or does he set the Cook Islands in motion and risk annoying tour operators here?
Will any country in Asia be safe?
Apart from Australia and a few Pacific countries, Ardern will need to examine whether other quarantine-free bubbles can be established before a vaccine arrives.
The top contender in Asia is Taiwan, with just 535 Covid-19 cases in a population of more than 23 million.
But technology is likely to be the best chance to make a breakthrough …
Jeff Chiu / AP
Theresa Zoller, left, gets a rapid test for Covid-19 before a United Airlines flight to Hawaii at San Francisco International Airport.
How can rapid tests be used?
Quick and accurate tests are the best chance for more travel bubbles to open.
Depending on their accuracy, these tests could be used daily by travelers from low-risk countries during their first 14 days in New Zealand. The results could potentially be self-reported.
In addition to this, another important question is whether you are immune after having Covid-19.
If so, it could provide a breakthrough for inbound travel to New Zealand. The University of Oxford, among many others, is developing a “reliable” antigen (immunity) test, which could deliver results in five minutes.
That could mean, for example, that an American who has the virus and has a proven immune response can travel to New Zealand without the risk of importing the virus.
At this stage, however, the World Health Organization says, “There is not enough evidence on the effectiveness of antibody-mediated immunity.” But this will be watched closely.
Will Kiwis Require a Covid-19 Immunity Passport?
When a vaccine arrives, which could be in 2021, you will most likely need to try the vaccine before traveling internationally. That may mean anti-vaccines could have a hard time traveling, potentially for years.
Will Ardern wait until herd immunity has been achieved with the inoculation before fully opening the borders, or will it rely on arriving tourists to have an immunity passport? That will largely depend on the reliability of the vaccine.
These are just a few of the problems the prime minister will face in the next three years, and Ardern has a huge balancing act. Closed borders keep Covid-19 out, but it also keeps billions of dollars of much-needed stimulus out of the country.
As the economy worsens, these tough questions will need answers.
What you think? What should New Zealand’s strategy towards the border be during Jacinda Ardern’s tenure? Let us know in the comments below.
