New Zealand radar could reveal possible space junk collision

A New Zealand-based radar will tell scientists whether two pieces of space junk, which together weigh 2.8 tons, will collide or narrowly miss over Antarctica tomorrow.

LeoLabs, a company that tracks space junk, warns of a “high risk” event – a possible collision between a missing Russian spy satellite and a spent part of a Chinese rocket – just before 2 pm Friday.

The company’s latest forecast put the chances that the Russian Cosmos satellite and the CZ-4C rocket will crash into each other, 991 km above Earth, at more than 10 percent.

LeoLabs warned that the two objects could pass within a distance of only 12 m from each other at a relative speed of 14.7 km per second, having put the chance of collision at one in 20.

LeoLabs’ radar at Naseby in Central Otago would reveal whether that collision impact occurred.

“Shortly after [time of closest approach], we will have a direct pass from CZ-4C R / B over our Kiwi Space Radar in New Zealand, “the company tweeted today.

“We have scheduled a search mode scan during this time to ensure we only see two objects as expected and hopefully confirm that no new debris is detected.”

The possible collision point was calculated over the Weddell Sea, off the coast of Antarctica.

Professor Richard Easther, an astronomer at the University of Auckland, expected the two objects to “buzz past each other” or collide.

If that happened, it was feared that it could send thousands of new pieces of junk into space, threatening working satellites.

“Anything in space is both a target and a bullet,” he said.

“And when the number of parts increases, the probability of future collisions also increases.”

He saw the possible collision as a “wake-up call” to make the space community more aware of the consequences of orbiting debris.

“That means making sure the satellites are safely exorbitant or out of the way towards the end of their controllable life.”

If the problem of space debris could not be addressed, the world could be locked in what is called “Kessler syndrome”, or where entering space becomes too dangerous.

“And even if we don’t get the full Kessler syndrome scenario, operating in space will become much more complex.”