New Zealand faces a hot and humid summer with increased risk of cyclones

New Zealand can prepare for a hot and humid summer even if you start with a fizzer on the first day.

NIWA has released its forecast for the summer, which officially begins on Tuesday.

It shows that heat wave marine conditions, described as periods of extremely warm sea surface temperatures that persist for a long time, will mean warm seas for much of New Zealand.

Air temperatures across the country, but even more so on the North Island, were forecast to be above average, but that would come with some high humidity.

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At times, some “subtropical disturbances” were expected, meaning there could be heavy rains and floods, especially in the North Island and the north of the South Island.

The tropical cyclone season, from November to April, generally sent an extropical cyclone to New Zealand.

This cyclone risk was high this summer, Niwa said.

But the MetService forecast for Tuesday, the first day of summer, shows a ‘cranky’ low-pressure system tracking across the country, “said meteorologist Andy Best.

That means heavy rain and strong winds from the south for Wellington and Wairarapa on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Nelson could expect a heavy rain from the north.

There was a strong wind watch for Taranaki on Tuesday morning and the eastern Bay of Plenty also had strong southerly winds.

There was a warning of heavy rain for the Wairoa area on Tuesday and strong winds, rising to gales, were heading towards Auckland.

“The good news for the first day of meteorological summer is that a high pressure ridge across the South Island brings good stable weather on Tuesday,” Best said.

“But a good start for some, with Alexandra residents waking up to only 4 degrees at dawn. It will also be a cool Tuesday in parts of Marlborough and Canterbury, with highs around the teens. “

That ridge would head toward the North Island on Wednesday.

By Region: Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty

Temperatures in Northland, Auckland, Waikato and the Bay of Plenty have an 80 percent chance of being above average this summer, according to Niwa.

Rainfall is likely to be normal or higher than normal and there is a higher probability of flooding.

Soil moisture and predicted river flows appear to be around average.

North Central Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatū, Wellington

Temperatures in the central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatū, Wellington have a 75% chance of being above average.

Rainfall is likely to be normal or higher than normal.

Soil moisture is likely to be close to or above normal, while river flows are likely to be near normal.

Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa

Temperatures in Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa have a 75 percent chance of being above average and rainfall is expected to be near or above normal. But the possibility of flooding was above normal.

Soil moisture and river flows were expected to be approximately normal.

Tasmania, Nelson, Marlborough, Buller

Temperatures in Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough and Buller had a 70 percent chance of being above normal, and rainfall would likely be above normal.

Soil moisture and river flows were expected to be approximately normal.

West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago, Southland

Temperatures on the west coast, the Alps, and the hills, inland Otago, Southland had a 70% chance of being above average, while rainfall was expected to be near or below normal.

Soil moisture and river flows were expected to be below or close to normal.

Canterbury Coast and East Otago

Temperatures off the coast of Canterbury and eastern Otago had a 70 percent chance of being above average and the rains were expected to be near or below normal.

Soil moisture and river flows were expected to be below or close to normal.