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The new variant of Covid-19 is “vastly” more transmissible than the previous version of the virus, according to a study. And while it’s not deadlier, more transmission means more cases, and the UK, where the new variant was first identified, is struggling to respond.
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He concludes that the new variant increases the reproduction or the R number between 0.4 and 0.7.
The increase in the transmission rate is a concern for countries like the United Kingdom that have struggled to contain the virus. The latest UK R number has been estimated to be between 1.1 and 1.3. It must be below 1.0 for the number of cases to start to decrease.
Professor Axel Gandy of Imperial College London said the differences between virus types were “quite extreme.”
“There is a big difference in the ease with which the variant of the virus spreads,” he told BBC News. “This is the most serious change in the virus since the epidemic began,” he added.
The Imperial College study suggests that transmission of the new variant tripled during the blockade of England in November, while the older version fell by a third.
Covid-19 cases have started to increase rapidly in the UK, with the number of cases recorded in a single day reaching a new high on Thursday.
Early results indicated that the virus was spreading most rapidly among those under 20 years of age, particularly among children of secondary school age.
But the most recent data indicates that it was spreading rapidly to all age groups, according to Professor Gandy, who was a member of the research team.
“One possible explanation is that the first data was collected during the close of November, when schools were open and the activities of the adult population were more restricted. Now we are seeing that the new virus has increased infectivity in all age groups. “.
The new virus has been designated “Variant of Concern 202012/01” or VOC by Public Health England.
It was detected in November and is believed to have originated in south-east England in September.
There is no evidence to suggest that it is more deadly, but the number of cases will rise, which in turn will add more pressure on the NHS.
The variant can now be found throughout the UK except Northern Ireland, but it is highly concentrated in London, as well as the southeast and east of England, as well as the US, Canada, Japan and other parts of Europe.
Shoppers walk down Oxford Street in London’s West End.
Photo: AFP / WIktor Szymanowicz / NurPhoto
Tighter restrictions in the UK
Professor Jim Naismith, from the University of Oxford, said he believed the new findings indicated that even stricter restrictions would soon be needed.
“The Imperial data represents the best analysis to date and implies that the measures that we have used to date, with the new virus, could not reduce the R number below 1.
“In simpler terms, unless we do something different, the new strain of the virus will continue to spread, more infections, more hospitalizations and more deaths.”
The R number is the average number of people that an infected person infects. If it is above 1, the epidemic is growing.
Professor Lawrence Young of the University of Warwick said early indications suggested the vaccines would be effective against the new form of the virus.
“Variant viruses have been around since the beginning of the pandemic and are a product of the natural process by which viruses develop and adapt to their hosts as they replicate.
“Most of these mutations have no effect on the behavior of the virus, but very occasionally they can enhance the virus’s ability to infect and / or become more resistant to the body’s immune response.”
More research is needed to understand why the variant is spreading so rapidly. But the first signs are that vaccines should be effective against it.
Analysis by Pallab Ghosh, BBC Science Correspondent
The most chilling finding from this research is that the November shutdown in England, while difficult for many people, would not have stopped the variant form of the virus spreading. The same severe restrictions that saw the cases of the previous version of the virus drop by a third, would see the new variant triple. That is why there has been such a sudden tightening of restrictions across the country.
It is unclear whether the current restrictions will be sufficient to control the spread of the virus. Given the fact that two lockdowns were necessary to prevent the previous version of the virus from overwhelming the NHS, many scientists fear that further adjustment is necessary.
Infection levels will begin to decrease as enough people are vaccinated. But until then, it’s now more important than ever for people to follow social distancing guidelines, wear masks when necessary, and wash their hands regularly.
The new year brings with it the hope of a more normal life in the coming months but also a new form of the virus that we will all have to fight in the coming days and weeks.
-BBC
