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New Zealand’s Level 4 Alert Block should be continued for another two weeks to strengthen the chances of removing Covid-19, says an expert at modeling how the coronavirus spreads.
The cabinet is studying the scenarios provided by Professor Shaun Hendy and his team.
Photo: Supplied
Over the weekend, ministers have been studying modeling data from a team at the University of Auckland led by Professor Shaun Hendy.
The cabinet will meet to make its decision today with a public announcement at 4pm.
Te Pūnaha Matatini, Hendy’s center of research excellence, studies complex systems and networks. He and the other researchers at the center have been working for weeks to predict how the Covid-19 infection network could spread, and whether it can be slowed or even stopped.
Hendy said Morning report The current reproductive rate, if one person contracts the virus, how many more people will they infect, is about 0.5 in New Zealand, which is good news.
“That means we are on our way to contain or eliminate the virus here.”
The difficulty in going to alert level 3 was that the country had not been there before and there was a possibility that the reproduction rate could rise above 1 (person infected for each positive case) which would mean returning to alert level 4 o Increase evidence and case tracking and isolation.
Although the reproduction rate is less than 1, it was a case of deciding how long the country could wait before being sure it was on its way to being eliminated, Hendy said.
“It would make sense to delay lifting the blockade as we know level 4 works.”
“If it were up to me, I’d be inclined to take a little more time, I’d make sure those numbers would go to zero, and that would be the approach I would suggest.
“We cannot say right now that we have eliminated the disease; we are still seeing cases on a daily basis and we really need to see those cases drop to zero …
“When we get out of level 4 if we go out, we break our bubbles, we go out onto the beach and we congregate in large numbers that are going to undo the good that we did in level 4.
He said his team has handled some scenarios and it was learned that taking another two weeks locked up was the safest option and would ensure people stay home for the long Anzac weekend later this month.
“I think there is a case to keep us home for that long weekend, once again if we get out of the running of the bulls and we all go out and enjoy that long weekend; leaving the Auckland regions, for example, that could be quite something risky to do. “
Going to alert level 3 would mean another 500,000 people would return to work, increasing the risk of the disease spreading.
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He said the broader community testing that has been introduced in various regions in the past few days is “nice,” ensuring that the number of cases is closer than we think.
“Some people abroad have claimed that the disease is much more prevalent than we think. That community tests say no, it is probably closer than we think.”
Community testing underway outside the Pak n ‘Save supermarket in Christchurch.
Photo: RNZ / Nate McKinnon
The country’s relatively low number of hospitalizations and the small number of deaths compared to abroad also assures us that we are not seeing much community spread that remains invisible.
When asked if it was realistic to eliminate the disease, he said: “I think so, we should not underestimate the challenge. If we do, we would be the first country in the world to do it, but certainly the model suggests it is possible and some of the specialists in Public health epidemiologists think it’s possible … so combine those two things, and yes, I think there is a good chance that we may be the first country in the world to eliminate it. “
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