La Niña weather cycle is likely to bring rain to the top of New Zealand this summer – Niwa

A one-in-a-hundred-year drought dramatically affected regions like Northland and Hawke’s Bay last summer and some are bracing for a second round.

But climate experts predict there could be a change of fortune.

Far North District Mayor John Carter said the rain hadn’t fallen significantly in a while.

“We needed to have at least 900mm of rain for the last three or four months, we’ve had about half of that, but last month we had about 32mm of rain, which is very low, and this month so far we’ve had 7 I believe “.

But if the weather plays right, Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said, the country’s top could see a change by the end of the year.

“The northern and eastern parts of the North Island, Northland to Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne, will be more exposed to humid weather conditions. So it’s not something that’s going to be a part of the weather here in the short term, but like us De November through December and then into the summer season, those areas that are quite dry now will see their chances of beneficial rains increase. “

That’s because La Niña, part of the climate cycle, is colder than the mean ocean temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Temperatures help meteorologists predict what will happen here.

Hawke’s Bay could have the same.

Fires and emergencies yesterday put the region into a restricted fire season, a month earlier than last year when the major drought struck.

His chief rural fire officer for Hawke’s Bay, Trevor Mitchell, said it was because an unusually windy, hot and dry spring had dried up most of Hawke’s Bay.

“As a result, our fire crews have been dealing with a number of dangerous and out of control fires,” he said.

But Rural Advisory Group Chairman Lochie MacGillivray, who has been behind the support of farmers during the dry spell, has said it would be a waiting game to see if a drought reappears.

“It is very possible that we will have a good rain at the end of the month and until November, in line with the La Niña event, which is what they are saying. However, those of us who have been before know that we have had droughts in La Niña apparently as often as we’ve had droughts in El Niño so we’re a bit cautious about it. “

Gisborne farmer Peter Jex-Blake said conditions at the time were razor’s edge.

He said farmers will have to take action if it doesn’t rain reasonably soon in their region.

“Farmers will wean earlier and get more lambs at the stall market, which would obviously have a bit of a price suppression at the store market. There was a particularly large cattle fair last week. I think the farmers could have been taking a precautionary approach and selling some livestock sooner than they might otherwise sell it. “

Farmers on the South Island have had a humid climate, but Ben Noll of Niwa suggested their luck could turn.

“For the South Island, we could expect to see the dryness persist longer, so in Canterbury and Otago and even Southland as the rest of the year progresses, these are the regions where we are going to look at the persistent patterns of dryness. “

Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor said that with climate change these events could worsen.

“It’s a bit unknown, what we’ve seen is that the temperatures are generally higher, but the reports I get on soil moisture is that it’s reasonably fine, but like I say, some think it may be a dry summer again. “

He said New Zealanders need to be resilient and help farmers make decisions sooner rather than later.