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Sally Round / RNZ
A parched meadow in South Hawkes Bay.
This story was originally posted on RNZ.co.nz and is being republished with permission.
Parts of the country are dealing with a dry spring and fear that the lack of rain will lead to another severe drought this year.
A one-in-a-hundred-year drought dramatically affected regions like Northland and Hawke’s Bay last summer and some are bracing for a second round.
But climate experts predict there could be a change of fortune.
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Far North District Mayor John Carter said the rain hadn’t fallen significantly in a while.
“We needed to have at least 900mm of rain for the last 3-4 months, we’ve had about half of that, but last month we had around 32mm of rain, which is very low, and this month so far we’ve had 7 I think. “
But if the weather played well, Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said the country’s top could see a change by the end of the year.
“The northern and eastern parts of the North Island, Northland to Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne, will be more exposed to humid weather conditions. So it’s not something that’s going to be a part of the weather here in the short term, but as we move from November to December and then into the summer season, areas that are quite dry at this time will see their chances of beneficial rains. . “
Liz Garton / RNZ
Northland in January of this year.
That would be due to La Niña, part of the climate cycle, cooler than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Temperatures help meteorologists predict what will happen here.
Hawke’s Bay could have the same.
Today, Fire and Emergency New Zealand put the region into a restricted fire season, a month earlier than last year when the great drought struck.
His chief rural fire officer for Hawke’s Bay, Trevor Mitchell, said it was because an unusually windy, hot and dry spring had dried up most of Hawke’s Bay.
“As a result, our fire crews have been dealing with a number of dangerous and out of control fires,” he said.
But Rural Advisory Group Chairman Lochie MacGillivray, who has been behind the support of farmers during the dry spell, has said it would be a waiting game to see if a drought reappears.
“It is very possible that we will have a good rain later in the month and until November, in line with the La Niña event, which is what they are saying. However, those of us who have been around before know that we have had droughts in La Niña apparently as often as we have had droughts in El Niño, so we are a little cautious about that. “
Gisborne farmer Peter Jex-Blake said conditions at the time were razor’s edge.
He said farmers will have to take action if it doesn’t rain reasonably soon in their region.
“Farmers will wean earlier and get more lambs in the stall market, which obviously would be a bit of a price suppression in the store market. Last week there was a particularly large cattle fair. I suppose farmers could have been taking a precautionary approach and selling some livestock sooner than they could otherwise sell it. “
Farmers on the South Island have had a humid climate, but Ben Noll of Niwa suggested their luck could turn.
“For the South Island, we could expect to see the dryness persist longer, so in Canterbury and Otago and then even Southland as the rest of the year progresses, these are the regions where we are going to look at persistent patterns of dryness. “
Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor said that with climate change these events could worsen.
“It is a bit unknown, what we have seen is that the temperatures are generally higher, but the reports that I get about the soil moisture is that it is reasonably good, but as I say, some think it may be a dry summer again. “
He said New Zealanders need to be resilient and help farmers make decisions sooner rather than later.
This story was originally posted on RNZ.co.nz and is being republished with permission.
