Jack Tame: This week was Winston’s swan song

We are exactly one week away from Election Day, but given New Zealand’s somewhat outdated election broadcast laws, this time next week, I won’t be able to say much. So I thought I’d start this morning with my findings from this year’s elections.

1) If it were only judging this government on its political record as it would in normal elections, Labor would face a much, much tougher race. They have made progress in some areas, it is true, but if you directly compare the promises of 2017 with what this administration has actually achieved, they have clearly fallen short in several areas.

Some problems like New Zealand’s mental health will not be instantly reversed and are probably worth a bit more time until Labor and the government can be judged to have succeeded or failed. Some, like child poverty, also deserve a little more time, although the policies that have been implemented and the first results are far from the noble promises that were made.

The government spent much of its first year on power outsourcing policy to various task forces … only to reject the core recommendations in some of the most important reports it commissions. In some areas, like residential housing, tax reform, and climate change, I think Labor and this government have been really poor.

But that said, it would be folly to suggest that the government and Labor should only be judged on their rhetoric and promises from three years ago. This tenure has been quite extraordinary, and even her staunch political opponents would have to accept that Jacinda Ardern’s leadership in the heat of a crisis has been for the most part very, very good. There are not many places on Earth where thousands of people can safely gather this weekend to watch a sports game. That did not come through a leadership vacuum.

2) For two years, National did quite well in opposition. But since the pandemic coincided with the elections, National has struggled to convince voters that it is ready to return to government. We have had leadership changes and deputies who resigned in disgrace. Some of the party’s most experienced MPs are retiring. Big policy announcements have been made at really strange times. The finance spokesman for the economic management party accumulated his sums. The campaign may have enjoyed an early boost from Judith Collins’ energy, but in recent weeks, at times they have looked increasingly desperate: Judith Collins praying, Alfred Ngaro’s wild Facebook ads, Denise’s email Lee exploiting the captain’s call from their leader, and someone from within the party’s decision to leak that email, the Ponsonby Road fiasco.

The tax cuts have been viewed as deeply cynical and while Labor gobbled up centrist voters, National has struggled to really differentiate itself on a political front. Many voters on the right think that another term in the opposition is more or less inevitable and have switched from National to ACT.

3) From a policy perspective, there is very little that really separates Labor and National. A tax cut here, a border agency there, for sure. But nothing really big. Nothing you can call “brave”.

There are still multiple sacred cows that none of the major parties are willing to address in any meaningful way: home prices, taxes, and retirement. Big parties are motivated by short-term incentives. They want more than anything to be in power and they are willing to kick in the street and let governments and future generations clean up the mess. The longer we leave these issues without doing something drastic, the bigger our problems will be in 10 to 15 years.

4) Lastly, everyone stands up when it comes to making great calls on NZ First. I could be wrong, I certainly have been before, but I think on the balance of probabilities Winston Peters is probably done.

What’s more, I think Winston Peters thinks Winston Peters is done. The fact that he agreed to participate in the multi-party debate that he normally boycotts, the fact that he asks voters not to vote early. The fact that the Serious Fraud Office has accused people of founding their party. It may well be that it’s all the end of New Zealand First.

5) We get over it.