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New Zealand’s Labor and Green parties have met for the third time to discuss what role the latter could play in the new government that Jacinda Ardern is expected to form in a few days.
Given that Labor has all the cards after its landslide victory earlier this month, a formal coalition government is seen as extremely unlikely after the latest talks on Tuesday.
However, although Ardern claimed 64 of 120 seats in parliament, the only absolute majority since 1996 when New Zealand’s proportional representation system was introduced, there are still good political reasons for her to involve the Green Party.
For its part, the Green Party has reason to be cautious about any role in the new administration. Unlike other parties that are purely political machines, the Green Party is as much a social movement as it is a political party. Their support ranges from activists to those who back the more pragmatic policies of co-leader James Shaw, who was the climate minister in the first Arden government.
Some in the party prefer him to be out of government to preserve his critical capacity. “Changes can be made and it is important that the Greens are an independent and critical voice working cooperatively and defiantly from outside the cabinet,” former Green MP Keith Lock said Tuesday.
Ardern, who has said he aims for a deal to be reached before the weekend, has already ruled out any discussion of the Green-backed wealth tax.
Coalition governments are rare in New Zealand and no one expects one this time. That said, the previous government was, by necessity, a New Zealand Labor / First coalition. The Green Party also provided support through a trust and supply agreement for which it won three ministerial posts and a parliamentary undersecretary. But Ardern appeared to pour cold water on a replay for the Greens.
If they do agree, the Labor force position means it can be more selective about what it consults the smaller party, said Jennifer Curtin, a professor of politics at the University of Auckland. It could be the environment in general, or climate change specifically, common ground, but it would almost certainly not include the budget, which sets the country’s financial direction, Curtin said.
“What we are seeing now is new terminology. There is talk of a consultation agreement, so there is no precedent.
“But I think Labor will be thinking of including the Greens in some way, maybe as associate members outside the cabinet.”
Although not being in the inner circle would negate the information of the Green Party, it has the advantage of freeing it from the secrecy rules that come with being in the cabinet. It could also spare you from the harsh sanctions small ruling parties face in subsequent elections, Curtin said, a price paid by New Zealand First that was voted out of parliament two weeks ago.
The juggling act of the Green Party, which campaigned for climate action, the protection of nature and an end to inequality, is to find a path that shows that it is ready to rule but does not burn the activist part of its base.
While it is not easy, it is doable, said former Labor Party chairman Mike Williams, who led his campaign through four elections. Green Party cabinet ministers were effective in the last administration, Williams said. “James Shaw did an excellent job as climate change minister. He signed the tories [the centre-right National party] in one aspect! “
While Ardern will receive pushback from its large number of MPs if the Greens are given too many jobs, Williams said, the party will also be aware that they must keep the sweetness of the Greens.
“The only other time that Labor got the vote they got two weeks ago was in 1938. It would be wise to anticipate that 2023 will not be a landslide victory for Labor and to be friendly with their long-term support party, which at some point they they will need. “
