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New Zealand’s place in the world is increasingly threatened as the post-World War II international order collapses and a power shift between the United States and China squeezes the countries in between.
This “turbulent” picture of the world comes from recently published briefings for new cabinet ministers written by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Mfat), the Defense Force and intelligence agencies, the Security Intelligence Service ( SIS) and the Government Security Communications Office (GCSB).
Mfat has written about its concern about “new levels of disruption, disorder and risk,” which have been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Many of the assumptions about global and regional affairs that have underpinned our foreign policy for the past 75 years are coming under real and sustained pressure,” the Mfat report says.
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“The post-World War II global order is receding and a new order is not yet emerging to replace it. But it is clear that the future will not resemble the recent past. “
Ricky Wilson / Stuff
The Royal New Zealand Navy ship HMNZS Wellington, seen here off the coast of Whakatane three days after the Whakaari / White Island eruption. (file photo)
Of particular concern for foreign policy were the “power shifts” that occurred between the United States and China, with competition in trade and technology as a key risk; a rules-based system under pressure from “country first” political agendas; economic development that extends the limits of the planet, causing climate change; and greater protectionism that affects trade openness.
Mfat considered that New Zealand’s economic interests in the Indo-Pacific were safe, however, “politically there is less room for optimism.”
The major powers – in the briefing he did not specify which ones – were less and less willing to allow forums like APEC and the East Asia Summit to have a voice in their strategic and economic interests.
Mfat has written some comments on New Zealand relations.
“The United States will continue to play a vital role in our security and prosperity.
“New Zealand’s relationship with China is significant and multidimensional, but also hugely asymmetrical.”
Mfat’s new minister, Nanaia Mahuta, may be required to travel abroad for meetings before New Zealand’s border restrictions are lifted, as the foreign service struggles to maintain its influence.
“It is becoming increasingly difficult for New Zealand’s voice to be heard in this environment and our influence will diminish over time.
“The greatest risk to New Zealand’s international influence is a scenario in which a critical mass of countries resumes physical meetings, including at the foreign minister level, but New Zealand’s border restrictions remain.
“Over time, it may be necessary for you to travel abroad for certain international meetings, even while our strict border measures remain in place. Her Australian counterpart, Marise Payne, has recently made overseas visits. “
Zha Chunming / AP
The Chinese missile frigate Yuncheng launches an anti-ship missile during a military exercise in the waters near Hainan Island and the Paracel Islands in southern China, which have been mentioned in a Defense Forces report to the Defense Minister. starter, Peeni Henare. The South China Sea is a security problem for New Zealand.
SOUTH CHINA SEA
The Defense Force, in its report to the new defense minister, Peeni Henare, said that the order based on international rules was under pressure and that Covid-19 had further strained it.
“Competition will increasingly occur within a new gray zone paradigm where actors undertake activities in a methodical and incremental way to gain advantage or influence in areas of interest to them.”
Of strategic interest is the Pacific, which requires a “central focus”; the Korean peninsula, which poses a risk as political and diplomatic interventions in North Korea’s missile tests have stalled; and China, which “seeks to restore claimed historical levels of influence.”
“The South China Sea is an increasingly controversial space … China has created and expanded multiple features of artificial islands on the Spratly and Paracel Islands on which it has built foundations. These posts now have radar and communications arrays, runways and hangars, deep-sea ports and weapons systems. “
Much of the comments on the South China Sea were drafted, as was the Defense Force’s “advanced schedule” of work in early 2021.
123RF
Intelligence agencies have written about their denied request for more funds at a briefing for the incoming minister.
NATIONAL SECURITY
A briefing on national security and a joint document from the SIS and GCSB did not provide much information beyond what was already known.
The SIS and GCSB report refers to agencies reaching the end of a four-year investment and reorganization period, but the “priority investments” being made are drafted.
“The agencies’ submissions to the 2020 Budget were based on similar four-year investment options aimed at improving efficiency and growth across all functions. Ultimately, the 2020 budget provided agencies with funding primarily for significant cost and capacity pressures, with limited growth in staffing. “
The report written to the Minister of Police, Poto Williams, offers an insight into the “Security and Intelligence Board”, one of the decision-making bodies that sets security priorities.
The board’s “priority risk areas” include foreign interference and espionage, terrorism, and the national security implications of the Covid-19 pandemic and the government’s response to it.
“The Pacific region is a priority issue for 2020.”
