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OPINION: “They can’t buy enough silver trays.” This is how a national MP put it to me before the party’s recriminations, which have started in earnest but could officially begin when the caucus and its incoming, and much larger group of outgoing MPs, meet in Wellington on Tuesday.
Outgoing national parliamentarians are presented with a silver tray in recognition of their service to the party.
In 2002, the party had to place bulk orders for 16 of them. This time, it’ll be at least 19. The recorder will have a busy couple of days.
There are several recurring themes when talking to national deputies about the future.
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* Election 2020: Judith Collins pitches to remain National Leader
The first is that, with very few exceptions, getting rid of Simon Bridges is considered a mistake, although it is often not expressed in those terms. It’s more like: “the decision to change Todd was a mistake.”
Todd, of course, is referring to Todd Muller, the short-lived Bay of Plenty national leader.
None Stuff He spoke with Muller’s mind, and the conspirators who allowed him to rise to the top, should escape guilt for the disaster that election night. Although, given the mental health issues at stake, no one wanted to speak officially.
“Muller appeared to have been conspiring for two years, but did not seem to have a plan when he arrived,” said one MP.
“The party’s vote completely collapsed because of that. I accept that there was a state of mind in the caucus, but if that was going to happen, it had to be a smooth transition, “said another national deputy about the coup.
For Labor, this was a victory much like 1987, when David Lange and Roger Douglas came close to winning the blue-ribbon seats of Remuera and Fendalton.
Labor won seats last night and, more importantly, won the party’s vote in seats it would not have dared to imagine.
The search for scapegoats now begins in earnest.
And there is no shortage of candidates. Some nominate Paul Goldsmith for not forming a strong enough economic narrative, while others defend his performance by pointing out that the leader sets the economic direction, direction Goldsmith got neither from Muller nor Judith Collins.
Others nominate Gerry Brownlee, whom they blame for a disastrous campaign. However, others blame Collins for being undisciplined and not writing a compelling message.
But criticism of Collins tends not to be too scathing. Muller resigned abruptly and, although she is seen as disloyal to every leader since John Key, she was the only credible candidate to raise her hand after Muller resigned. At that time, it was always going to be difficult.
Two people who receive regular criticism, even from their more liberal fellow travelers within the National Party, and despite being strong political and political actors, were staunch Muller supporters Chris Bishop and Nicola Willis, who were promoted by both Muller and by Collins.
Willis, in particular, is only in Parliament because of his much higher ranking under Muller and then Collins. As the National caucus watches the many MPs leaving, they see the conspirators starting National’s spiral into electoral oblivion.
Another national deputy told Stuff sinisterly: “That has not gone well at all. It is not good to see bad behavior rewarded. That will be part of the process.
Another was more direct: “Our party list has been basically a product of Muller and then Judith, who basically promoted disloyal narcissists, even guys like David Bennet. [the MP who lost Hamilton East], so that everyone stays “.
That was his intention. They needed to get on the list. “
Such is the brutal arithmetic of politics that the former advocates of the Bishop and Willis caucus have now gone very quiet.
While there appears to be general agreement that Collins will not lead National into the 2023 election, there is no apparent appetite, at this time, to get her out. She also seems determined to stay. The reasoning is simple: who would want to take the job in the short term?
Against a popular prime minister at the height of her powers, the winner would be hidden for nothing for at least a year.
With fewer party resources, a much smaller caucus, and a government that will be able to quickly make decisions and legislate, it will be hard work for years to come.
The unhappiness within the national caucus cannot be underestimated, and there will be plenty of water to pass under the bridge for months to come, and even years.
Rolling leaders due to panic in polls rarely work.
Some national MPs expected there would be a “quiet New Zealander” or “shy conservative” effect at night, where people voted for Collins, but felt they couldn’t tell anyone. Sort of like Scott Morrison in Australia last year, except the goal wasn’t a win, but a respectable finish in the mid-30s.
There were no New Zealanders like that.
And he ignored the broader point. If you are going to change leaders to improve your electoral prospects, you had better face an unpopular or untrusted leader, such as Australian Bill Shorten.
Instead, National took on Jacinda Ardern. And despite all the scapegoats and infighting that will begin to happen, more than half of the national caucus voted to change leaders.
There is a lot of guilt for everyone. And many silver trays.