Election 2020: Knife Edge Cannabis Referendum Result, New UMR Poll Suggests

The cannabis referendum is on a razor’s edge, with a new poll suggesting that voters narrowly lean toward an affirmative vote.

A new poll released by the Helen Clark Foundation and the New Zealand Drug Foundation this morning shows that 49 percent of respondents support the legislation, while 45 percent oppose it.

When those who responded “unsure” were asked in which direction they were leaning, another 2% leaned in favor of voting in favor of legalizing the recreational use of cannabis.

The results differ with a recent poll by Colmar Brunton, published on Sept. 26, which showed support for the legislation was fading.

In TVNZ’s Colmar Brunton poll, only 35 percent of respondents said they supported the bill, and 53 percent of respondents opposed.

And the latest Newshub Reid-Research, published six days ago, showed just 37.9 percent of those who responded in favor of the legislation, compared with 50.5 percent against.

The UMR poll, released today, shows that National supporters and respondents over 60 were least likely to say they would vote for cannabis legalization, at 26% and 33% respectively.

Former Prime Minister Helen Clark says she is aware that the UMR poll differs from recent polls on the subject, but says she trusts the track record of the investigation team, which has been tested in recent election results.

“If you look at the track record of who has gotten the election right, they probably got it right too,” he told the Herald.

“Horizon Research also has a good track record and their survey results are similar to this.”

However, Say Nope to Dope spokesman Aaron Ironside says the UMR poll results are a far cry from the sentiments he’s seen in the past two years.

“It goes against the trend of the national polls and our internal polls, which show a large gap between those who are in favor and those who are against, with a large majority against the legislation,” he said.

Kathy Errington, executive director of the Helen Clark Foundation, says voter participation would be critical to the outcome of the referendum.

“All we know for sure is that it’s going to be around and what you do now: if you support change, if you talk to your friends, if you go out and vote, it can make a difference,” he said.

“We hope that whatever the outcome, New Zealand moves away from an approach to drug policy that has its roots in criminal law and prohibition.

“Our cannabis laws have done so much harm to so many people for so many years that we expect them to change and we hope that will happen no matter what.”

Ross Bell, director of the New Zealand Drug Foundation, says polls have proven to be a poor prognosis for recent overseas referendums.

“The only thing for sure is that people are talking to their family and friends about why an affirmative vote is important, helping to check that voters are registered and getting out and voting,” he said.

New Zealanders will be asked in the next election if they support the cannabis control and legalization bill.

Ironside said there was “no room to be complacent” with less than two weeks to go by vote day.

“We want people to be informed,” he said.

“This is an evidence-based campaign. If cannabis is legalized, more cannabis will be used than ever and more young people will be exposed to cannabis.

“We are still discovering that people think we are talking about medical cannabis and only when people look at the effects of legalization in other countries do they see that they don’t want to open Pandora’s box.”

But Clark says a Pandora’s box has been opened “for probably 60 years.”

“The referendum doesn’t ask you: ‘Do you think cannabis should be available?’ because it’s widely available and has been for decades, “she said.

“New Zealand is quite frankly one of the cannabis capitals of the world. It grows very easily here and up to 80 percent of people will have used it in their lifetime.

“I would really ask people to think about their vote and think if they themselves would want to be in the position that people who use cannabis are, who are arrested, prosecuted and convicted, and if they would want their children and grandchildren to be in that position. position.

“That criminalization is a plague in their lives. But if you remove that criminalization and legalize it, you get the economic benefits of legal cannabis, and it is also an opportunity for those who grow it to make their mark.”

In reality, Errington said, the cannabis control and legalization bill is very restrictive.

“It will not be free for everyone, far from it: public consumption will be prohibited, there is a minimum age of consumption of 20 years, advertising is prohibited,” he said.

“It is much, much more restrictive than the regimes in places like Colorado.”

The details

• The bill legalizes restricted access to cannabis

• The bill would allow people to possess and use cannabis in limited circumstances.

• A person 20 years of age or older could:

buy up to 14 grams of dry cannabis (or its equivalent) per day only from authorized outlets
enter authorized premises where cannabis is sold or consumed

consuming cannabis on private property or in licensed premises

grow up to 2 plants, with a maximum of 4 plants per home

sharing up to 14 grams of dried cannabis (or its equivalent) with another person 20 years of age or older.