Election 2020: Jacinda Ardern’s congressional dilemma

OPINION: As troubles progress, it’s good to have, but Jacinda Ardern will have to exercise caution when selecting her next deputy prime minister, writes Sam Sachdeva.

For all the problems Winston Peters has caused Jacinda Ardern during her three years in office, he has provided at least one solution.

When Peters secured the post of deputy prime minister during the Labor-New Zealand First coalition negotiations, he gave Ardern someone with previous experience in the job (albeit with mixed results), while in effect taking a hand out of his hands. potentially controversial decision.

When the prime minister took six weeks of maternity leave in mid-2018, Peters defied some pundits’ predictions of mayhem by keeping a steady hand on the tiller until her return: a few spent punches to the media and a short break to sue the Crown was as scandalous as it could get.

But unless Peters can “defy gravity,” as he often puts it, he and New Zealand First seem destined to leave Parliament, and that in turn will leave Ardern with something of a MP’s dilemma.

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If the decision was made by a captain, regardless of the broader political context, he would almost certainly line up Finance Minister Grant Robertson as his second-in-command.

The couple have a long history together, dating back to the Labor government of Helen Clark, and when Robertson made a botched bid for Labor leadership in 2014 it was with Ardern as his intended replacement.

That’s not to say he doesn’t deserve the role: One of the less-heralded successes of the government’s first term has been Kelvin Davis’s efforts to reduce tension in overwhelmed prisons by reducing the prison population, while in more than he has once proved capable of matching Ardern’s rhetorical heights.

But Davis himself would likely acknowledge that he has struggled with cuts and the push for Question Time and media protests when asked to replace Ardern in Parliament; After some initial setbacks, Robertson largely took over the functions of the Prime Minister’s House when she was unable to be there.

As deputy prime minister, Davis would have to replace Ardern more often and couldn’t so easily get past the less pleasant aspects of the job.

But taking Davis’s job and handing it over to Robertson would risk alienating both Maori voters and MPs, as the caucus had already faced significant pressure on the government’s stance on issues like the uprising of children. Maori on the part of Oranga Tamariki.

Perhaps Ardern’s other partner could offer him a way out: said Green Party co-leader and Climate Change Minister James Shaw RNZ the role of deputy prime minister “was not out of the question.”

Shaw would make a good pair of hands and he has known Ardern for some time; however, naming him could alienate elements of both Labor and the Greens.

Replacing Peters (or for that matter Davis) with Shaw could be seen as a more left-wing government move – probably a welcome move to some of the coalition’s left-wing supporters, but possibly resisted by more centrist and even conservative elements. of the Labor Party.

But that might not be enough for some members of the Greens, who must ratify any coalition agreement (through the support of at least 75 percent of delegates) before the leadership can sign on the dotted line.

There have already been some rumors among supporters about why Shaw is lined up for the job and not co-leader Marama Davidson, who is more beloved by the party’s rank and file.

If some within the Labor Party are skeptical of Shaw, they would be positively terrified (rightly or wrongly) of Deputy Prime Minister Davidson.

There is a compromise position in appointing the deputy prime ministers, but it is difficult to know how that would work in practice, and it could still risk internal divisions depending on who was more co-chair than the other.

And members of the Greens may be skeptical in general about taking on the trappings of office if it is perceived to come at the expense of political gains, such as the wealth tax that Ardern and Robertson refuse even to discuss during negotiations.

Perhaps the most likely outcome, though by no means guaranteed, is that Robertson will become deputy prime minister, as Davis cites a desire to focus on his portfolios, which is not unreasonable, given that much remains to be done to fix systems justice and corrections.

But if he doesn’t make that decision himself, it would be an extremely risky decision for Ardern to expel him.

On one level, this may sound like a lot of noise for a relatively powerless role that merits just a handful of sentences in the 190-page Cabinet Manual.

But the dynamic between a prime minister and his vice president does matter, while you can never be sure when the second in charge may be required to take over, as Ardern’s pregnancy demonstrated.

As the troubles progress, it’s nice to have, but barring a dramatic change in the polls, it’s a problem Ardern will have to face soon.