Election 2020: How Poor Rural Northland Could Decide Elections

Shane Jones admits that he feels the weight of NZ First on his shoulders while serving in the Northland electorate.

Since NZ First does not have a high enough vote to meet the MMP threshold, the position is a must for the seasoned politician.

But there is a catch. Northland is a safe seat of the National Party and polls show Jones in third place behind national incumbent Matt King and Kawakawa-based Labor MP Willow-Jean Prime.

Still, Jones speaks confidently, taking comfort in the fact that National hasn’t won the seat every time, with NZ First leader Winston Peters winning the 2015 by-elections.

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“I am very, very sure that I am going to surprise people and do it very well,” he said.

Matt King trusts him too, who won Peters endorsement in 2017.

Residents of Nothlanders took a protest vote in the 2015 by-elections to get the area’s attention, but returned to vote nationally after King struggled to knock on the door to meet his constituents, he said.

King sold his best breeding cows to give him the funds to hit the road, and his experience as a farmer, businessman and ex-cop is the kind that appeals to traditional Northland voters.

The Northland electorate, not to be confused with the region of the same name that includes the city of Whangārei, is made up mainly of small rural towns, such as Kaitaia, Kerikeri, Kaikohe, Dargaville, and Mangawhai.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing employ 17 percent of workers, while construction and government-funded health care round out the top three industries.

Northland, known as the north without winter, is also a popular place for retirees and 23% of the population receives a pension.

The area has one of the highest proportions of people of Maori ethnicity (41%) and one in eight people can speak to you.

But Northland historically has an unemployment rate of 9.1 percent and its median income of $ 24,800 is well below New Zealand’s median income of $ 31,800.

Poor health outcomes include one of the highest percentages of regular smokers (20 percent) and the highest proportion of people who have great difficulty hearing, even with a hearing aid (2.5 percent).

Northland’s tough stats create fertile ground for an interesting political fight with all three area-based MPs.

The minor parties are also represented by political newcomers: Darleen Tana Hoff-Nielsen for the Green Party, Independent Mike Shaw, Mark Cameron for ACT, Mel Taylor for New Conservative, Brad Flutey for Social Credit, Michele Mitcalfe for Outdoors Party and Helen Jeremiah for The Feast of Opportunities.

JONES A NORTHERN SHAKER

Helping Northland get the funding it deserves has been a focus for Jones over the past three years, and he believes his delivery has been “second to none.”

Jones said Stuff More than 1,300 northern residents were working on Provincial Growth Fund projects, the most of any region in the country, which some leaders say has helped the area register low unemployment.

But the employment figures have been analyzed by National, as they show the number of people employed through the projects, not the number of new jobs created.

Even the Auditor General has criticized the Provincial Growth Fund for lack of transparency, lackluster management of conflicts and the operation of an unclear “fund within a fund”.

But Jones said the fund is not just about creating jobs now, but about installing infrastructure to enable long-term business investment in regions like Northland.

He noted the $ 110 million invested in the Northland Railroad, plus an infrastructure investment of $ 700 million for the four-lane State Highway 1 between Whangārei and Marsden Point.

Water storage is another area, with $ 30 million funded for dams in Kaikohe and Kaipara, allowing farmers to make more profit from their land, he said.

And with the severe flooding that followed the widespread Northland drought, Jones said it was his influence in government as a “Northland shaker” that allowed him to announce a $ 26 million flood support package.

He urged the people of the North to vote strategically for him and NZ First to have the opportunity to be represented “at the center of the architecture of the next government.”

VOTERS COME THROUGH THE PURCHASE OF VOTES

But King said Northlanders were smart enough to see through Jones’ frequent funding announcements and groundbreaking ceremonies.

“It’s counterproductive for him because it looks like piggy bank financing on steroids – he’s withheld the ads so he can announce them before the election,” King said.

“This is what dictatorial third world politicians get involved in and people are not stupid.”

King criticized not only the way the funding was announced, but also the lack of scrutiny of the projects, saying that those like the Northland rail upgrade do not pile up financially and are “throwing good money after bad.”

But King supports some of the funding for Northland, such as the four-lane highway south of Whangārei, which he said was a national policy until it was eliminated in 2018.

King believes he has represented Northland well over the past three years, standing up for voters in areas such as the iwi-run checkpoints established during the coronavirus shutdown.

He argued that the road blocks were illegal, which earned praise from all sectors of the community, he said.

King has also stood out as a self-confessed “climate change researcher,” saying he liked to keep an open mind about climate change.

“I am willing to listen to everyone’s point of view, but we cannot impose draconian laws on people and set goals that cannot be achieved.

“We have to have the economic conditions that allow us to be respectful with the environment.”

PART OF THE TEAM PUSHING IN THE NORTH

Although the future of NZ First potentially hangs in Northland’s seat, Willow-Jean Prime de Labor said she would not tell Northlanders to vote for Jones.

“The prime minister has made it clear that we have not made such agreements before and we will not do so now.”

While Prime acknowledged that the electorate had poor statistics on poverty, housing, education and unemployment, he said it was not what defines the “beautiful” district.

But he said Northland benefited greatly from the Provincial Growth Fund, which is decided by the entire government, not just Jones as regional economic development minister.

“I have long been an advocate for many of the projects that have received PGF funding; the most important thing for me is that these projects are supported. “

Prime also pointed to recent funding for flood mitigation in Northland, and said he was able to leverage his experience as a Far North councilor to show how flood mitigation in Moerewa was a worthwhile, out-of-the-box project.

Prime said she was also proud of her work on period poverty, raising the issue with everyone, including Megan Markle during her visit to New Zealand in 2018, until free sanitary supplies were funded in schools, which made a big difference. in the educational outcomes of young people. woman.

As a mother of two young children, Prime said she has also helped make parliament more child and family friendly.