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The outcome of the 2020 US presidential election may not be finalized for weeks and even then, it may not be accepted by everyone.
Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden have only a few days left in their fight for the Oval Office.
Patrick Semansky / AP
Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden will emerge victorious as the votes are counted, but it will be more than a month before the results are official.
On Election Day, November 3 (Wednesday NZT), the preliminary results will begin to be counted and the presumed winner will be named in the following hours.
But the official result will not arrive until the Electoral College votes on December 14, provided there are no disputes or delays. The date set for the swearing-in ceremony is January 20, 2021.
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What follows is a breakdown of how the president is chosen and how the result can be challenged.
Demystifying the Electoral College
Using the first-after-post method, the selected candidate does not need to win the general popular vote to take the White House. Instead, they need to win a majority of the 538 Electoral College votes.
The Electoral College is made up of voters who are supposed to vote, but not always, based on the outcome of their status in the elections. A state has as many electors as there are senators and members in the House of Representatives.
Each state in the United States has two senators and a number of representatives based on the population and provided at the national level for a fixed number of 435 members in the House. Every state must have at least one, and the numbers are adjusted every 10 years based on the national census.
This means that each state has a minimum of three voters, making the less populated states proportionally overrepresented. This explains how winning the popular vote does not decide the election.
In 2020, each elector represents a national average of 711,000 voters. But, for example, the mostly rural state of Wyoming only has a population of about 580,000, and yet it still has three votes in the Electoral College.
John Raoux / AP
Joe Biden will accept the outcome of the 2020 election as long as all votes are counted.
The largest state for voters was California with 55 Electoral College votes, followed by Texas with 38 and New York 29. Key states include Florida, also with 29, Pennsylvania 20 and Ohio 18.
The Constitution of the United States does not require voters to vote in a particular way. Some states and parties have rules, but the penalties for not following them are fines and you will not be eligible for the role again.
Sometimes voters break rank and do not vote as required by the state and parties; they are called unfaithful voters. This happened in 1808, 1972 and in 2016 when seven voters did. These unfaithful votes do not disqualify the Electoral College result as there is no federal law that requires voters to vote in line with the popular vote.
‘Calling’ for elections
On election night the popular vote will be counted. When a candidate appears to have won the state majority, the vote will be “called” with the votes of the Electoral College and then presumably counted.
All but two states use a winner-take-all method for voters’ votes. So even when a state has a close race, all Electoral College votes will go to the candidate who wins the state majority.
The two exceptions, Nebraska and Maine, use a method that divides voters’ votes. Two are granted by the general popular vote and the rest are granted by a majority of the congressional district within the state.
So while the elections on November 3 will tell us how the Electoral College vote should go, the official count of voters will not be known for about a week. Voters meet on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December, December 14, to cast their vote.
Then, on January 6, Congress will count the votes. If no candidate wins 270 or more votes from the electors, which is the minimum required majority, the House will elect the next president and the Senate will elect the vice president.
Covid-19 is delayed and accepts the result
The Covid-19 pandemic can delay the counting process. Due to pent-up limitations and safety concerns (there are more than 9.26 million cases in the US on the eve of elections), an estimated 80 million people have chosen to submit absentee or mail ballots.
Each state has different rules for these types of ballots. Many states will only count mailed votes received before Election Day, while some will count them as long as they were sent before Election Day.
Florida is one of the few states that begins counting mail-in ballots before Election Day, most only begin counting after the polls have closed.
Nati Harnik / AP
Tens of millions of voters are estimated to cast their vote by mail in the 2020 elections.
Due to this lengthy process, the defeated 2016 Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, advised Biden in August not to grant election night.
“Joe Biden shouldn’t give in under any circumstances, because I think this is going to drag on and ultimately, I think he will win if we don’t give an inch, and if we’re as focused and relentless as the other side. , ”Clinton told her former communications director Jennifer Palmieri during an interview on Show time.
If he loses, Biden will accept the final vote count, but insists that all votes must be counted. Trump has refused to commit to accepting the results.
“I have to see, look, I have to see, I’m not just going to say yes, I’m not going to say no, and not last time either,” Trump said. Fox News Sunday in July.
He recently made it clear that he also planned to quickly take the presidential race to court.
“We are going to go at night, as soon as the election is over, we are going to go with our lawyers,” Trump told reporters in Charlotte.
If Trump loses and refuses to leave the White House, Biden is convinced the military will get involved.
“I promise you, I am absolutely convinced, they will escort him from the White House in an office,” he said. The daily program Trevor Noah in June.
Almost all of the losing presidential candidates have admitted and accepted defeat over the years.
“Well, we are going to have to see what happens. They know that I have complained a lot about the ballots and the ballots are a disaster, ”Trump told the media in September when asked about plans for a peaceful transfer of power.
“I think this will end up in the Supreme Court.”
This has happened in the past. In 2000, Al Gore, the Democratic candidate who took on George W Bush, called for a recount. The Supreme Court took 36 days to decide that a recount was not necessary.
This is part of the reason why Trump pushed to replace Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg as soon as possible. Amy Coney Barrett, whom Trump nominated and hailed as a “woman of remarkable intellect and character,” was confirmed before the United States Supreme Court by a divided Senate in late October.
