Does Donald Trump’s Space Force have a future?

The outgoing president of the United States, Donald Trump, has a penchant for grandiose promises that are not kept. So when he announced a plan to establish a Space Force, there was some skepticism.

Then-Senator Bill Nelson, a high-ranking member of a Senate committee dealing with aviation and space, did not like the idea of ​​consolidating the space programs of the other branches of the military, saying at the time that there were “too many Important missions at stake “to” break the Air Force apart “.

The idea for the new service became food for late-night comedians and a Netflix sitcom.

The Space Force, however, was not simply a presidential meditation. Created last year as the first new armed service since 1947, it was established with a mission to protect America’s interests in space from potential adversaries, be they rival nations or piles of space junk.

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Whether it can accomplish that mission is an open question. Although Trump defends the initiative, he has done little to ensure it has the funds, staff and authority to succeed. When he leaves the White House next month, the trajectory of the Space Force remains unclear.

The Space Force has taken control of some space operations, but many others are still spread throughout the other military branches of the country.

Within the Department of Defense, the Air Force has most of the space programs and budget for space operations. It is responsible for supporting and maintaining satellites for GPS, missile warning, and nuclear command and control, as well as paying the United Launch Alliance and SpaceX to launch national security satellites.

The Army and Navy also have their own space operations.

The consolidation of these disparate programs in the Space Force has been slow. Some Air Force missions have been transferred to or are in the process of being transferred to Space Force control: Last week, United States Vice President Mike Pence announced that Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Base of the Patrick Air Force in Florida would change their names and become the first two Space Force Facilities.

Ultimately, all Air Force space missions are supposed to follow suit. But there has been no progress in integrating Army or Navy space missions.

“The last thing you want … after all this reorganization and the creation of a new military service is to continue the fragmentation of our space programs and space organizations across the military,” said Todd Harrison, principal investigator at the Center for Strategic and think tank of International Studies. “The goal of all this was to consolidate.”

Compared to the budgets and personnel of the other branches of the US military, the Space Force is small. And technically it is part of the Air Force, just like the Marine Corps is part of the Navy.

The Space Force, which consisted of about 2,100 people as of November 1, had a budget of $ 40 million for its operations and maintenance in fiscal year 2020.

Meanwhile, the Air Force has more than 325,000 active duty personnel and a budget of $ 168 billion for fiscal year 2020 (the Air Force has designated nearly $ 14 billion of that amount for space capabilities. These projects have since been converted then part of the Space Force).

The Space Force will likely always be the smallest military service, Harrison said.

“Space is more dictated by capabilities than mass,” he said.

The Space Force “shouldn’t try to organize itself in the way of these much larger services because that’s not what it is. That’s not what it’s going to become.”

But the Space Force’s 2020 resources are not sufficient to carry out its mission of organizing, training and equipping forces to deter or defeat threats in space, said David Deptula, retired Air Force lieutenant general and dean of the Mitchell Institute. of Aerospace Studies. tank.

For fiscal year 2021, the Space Force requests a budget transfer from the Air Force of $ 15.3 billion. And over time, as the space programs of other services begin to consolidate in the Space Force, their budgets should follow.

“The nation faces some very significant threats in the space realm,” Deptula said. “Let’s make sure the service is set up for success.”

US intelligence officials have warned that China and Russia have discussed developing new electronic warfare capabilities, which could have implications for US military satellite communications or interference from GPS satellites. In 2007, China tested an anti-satellite weapon and destroyed one of its own dormant weather satellites.

“The Space Force really needed to be confronted to remain competitive with the very real threats coming from our closest adversaries,” said James Marceau, managing director of defense and aerospace for consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal, who has also served as senior advisor. from the Pentagon on major strategies, including the Space Force. “We cannot afford to neglect that domain.”

The strategic role of satellites came to the fore in the early 1990s during the Gulf War, when the US military began to rely on GPS coordinates to direct troops.

Over the years, congressional leaders and military officials, including former Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld, have weighed consolidating space operations.

In 2016, the proposal gained traction when Representatives Jim Cooper and Mike Rogers began advocating for a “space corps.”

The bipartisan couple later introduced legislation to pave the way. They wanted the military to spend more time and resources in space, something that was not always prioritized by an Air Force leadership with many fighter pilots.

But there was not enough support in the US Senate for the proposal. Then, in 2018, Trump seized on the idea.

In an address to the Marines at Miramar Air Station in San Diego that March, Trump noted that the United States. he was doing an “enormous amount of work in space”, adding, “we may need a new force” called the Space Force. (Cooper would later say that Trump “tried to hijack” the space body idea.)

Five months later, Vice President Mike Pence announced that the Pentagon would create a new branch of the military called the U.S. Department of Space Force.The Space Force was later included in the National Defense Authorization Act of 2020, which was passed by Congress and signed into law by Trump last December.

At this point, it is “highly unlikely” that the Biden administration will attempt to eliminate the Space Force, Harrison said. “It would be 10 times more disturbing if we tried to reverse it right now.”

Doing so would require a vote in the US House and Senate, as well as the president’s signature, he said.

“I haven’t heard anyone seriously entertain the idea of ​​eliminating it,” Harrison said. “He hasn’t had a chance to start yet.”

Not to mention the bureaucratic difficulties of trying to move agencies and people.

“It has already transferred thousands of people to the Space Force,” said Doug Loverro, former deputy undersecretary of defense for space policy and a leading proponent of the Space Force before its inception. “Can you imagine pulling the rug out from under them?”

The Space Force itself seems determined to stay.

In a document setting out the service’s priorities, the chief of space operations, Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond, says that “proliferating technology” and “competitive interests” have shifted the space from a benign environment to a “one in which we anticipate all aspects of human life. ” effort, including war. “

The service’s goals include developing new capabilities, increasing cooperation, and enabling “agile and efficient service.”

And in a decisive statement, the document, released just days after the elections, states that it provides a foundation for where the Space Force wants to be “over the next decade, beyond anyone’s mandate. [chief of space operations], administration or Congress “.

Los Angeles Times