Covirus 19 coronavirus: Swedish expert says NZ faces years of quarantine for arrivals

Sweden’s top former virus expert says the blockades are just one way to delay the inevitable, and warns that New Zealand could face years of quarantine for foreigners entering the country, even after eliminating Covid-19.

Johan Giesecke has defended his country’s coronavirus strategy, saying that the blocks do not prevent sudden increases in cases or deaths, but simply delay them.

Giesecke believes that it is “useless” to try to stop the spread and says that most countries will end up in a similar position, regardless of their strategy, until treatment can be found.

He believes that Denmark, Norway and Finland, which are in full closure, will end the same number of cases as Sweden, which is not, as soon as its restrictions are eased.

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It also says New Zealand will start importing cases from abroad, after successfully suppressing the virus during the crash.

To avoid that, quarantine measures will have to remain in place until a vaccine is developed, something that he says could take a decade or more.

Giesecke spoke to Swedish media after the country’s current leading virus expert Anders Tegnell declined to recommend a blockade as deaths and the number of cases continue to rise.

Sweden has more than 25,000 cases of Covid-19 and more than 3,170 people have died.

Meanwhile, Norway has 8,034 cases and 217 deaths.

The Scandinavian countries that have been blocked have announced that they will begin to reduce the restrictions.

Giesecke says this means it is only a matter of time before his numbers compete with Sweden’s.

Due to the highly contagious nature of Covid-19, he wrote in The Lancet that “everyone will be exposed to [the virus] and most people will get infected. “

He agreed that flattening the curve was important to prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed, but argued that it was naive to think that the virus could be eliminated without the vaccine.

“There is very little we can do to prevent this spread,” he said. “A crash could delay serious cases for a while, but once the restrictions are relieved, the cases will reappear.

“I hope that when we count the number of Covid-19 deaths in each country in a year from now, the numbers will be similar, regardless of the steps taken.”

“Our most important task is not to stop the spread, which is almost useless, but to focus on providing the unfortunate victims with optimal care,” he added.

Speaking to the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter in a follow-up interview, he used the New Zealand example, widely praised globally for his Covid-19 response.

He says New Zealand is still at risk from importing cases from abroad as soon as the borders are opened.

He believes the only way to avoid that is to put each new arrival in a 14-day quarantine.

• Covid19.govt.nz – The official government Covid-19 advisory website