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A person with Covid-19 who was going to an Auckland pub on the same day they were exposed to the virus has sparked fears of further spread. But an epidemiologist says the risk is likely very low. This is why.
Health Minister Chris Hipkins told RNZ Morning report there were a “reasonably low risk” person was infectious while at The Malt in Greenhithe, given that they were exposed that day, but “not without risk.
The typical incubation period for Covid-19 is two to 14 days. In just a few hours, the virus would “just start” in a person’s body, meaning that “it would not seem plausible that the person became infectious” that same day, said Professor Michael Baker of the University of Otago. Stuff.
DAVID BLANCO / THINGS
The Malt Bar in Greenhithe, north of Auckland, has been closed after a person in attendance on Friday tested positive for Covid-19.
Baker said that while he “sounded the alarm” for a person exposed to Covid-19 to attend an indoor social event, it was “highly unlikely” that they would be infectious while in the pub, given the tight deadline.
READ MORE:
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* Coronavirus alert level yo-yo: no further lockdowns should be necessary – expert
However, Baker cautioned that extremes were seen in virology, meaning “we can never say never.”
The person, a colleague of a dock worker who was confirmed to have the virus, went to a pub in North Auckland on Friday, October 16, prompting a warning from health officials that all customers and staff self-isolate and get tested.
Ross Giblin / Stuff
Professor Michael Baker said it was unlikely that the person had been incubating the virus long enough to be infectious.
Baker said that Covid-19 is transmitted very effectively in indoor social settings, which has been seen to become “high-profile events” in New Zealand, such as Bluff’s wedding, due to a number of factors.
They were often less controlled gatherings, where people “mixed and mingled” for hours.
With booze and loud music, people get closer to talk to each other and there is less social distancing.
Baker said that, without knowing the circumstances, it could also be less risky if the person simply sat down with a small group for dinner.
KEVIN STENT / Stuff
Health officials say a move to alert level 2 would have been advised if it was unclear where the community case was coming from, but there was a “strong line of inquiry” as to where they were infected.
When asked if a person could pick up Covid-19 from the bar table they sat on, Baker said there was a “very remote risk.”
Could these new cases cause changes in alert levels?
New Zealand is currently at Alert Level 1 and Hipkins said Morning report officials “did not see information at this time suggesting a change in alert levels.”
“Obviously, Covid-19 is a complicated virus, it can spread very quickly, so we are monitoring it very, very closely,” he said.
Alert level 1 means that the virus is contained in New Zealand. It is out of control abroad and the country is seeing sporadic imported cases.
Alert level 1 allows isolated local transmission.
On Wednesday afternoon, Health Director General Dr. Ashley Bloomfield said a move to alert level 2 would have been advised if health officials were unclear about where the community case came from, or if they had found other community cases “popping up” in unexpected places.
“But in this case we have a very strong line of investigation as to where this person may have been infected and we were able to very quickly identify close contacts and isolate those people,” Bloomfield said.
David White / Stuff
All staff and customers at The Malt on Friday between 7 and 10:30 p.m. were urged to isolate themselves and get tested for Covid-19.
At alert level 2, the disease is contained but the risk of community transmission persists.
The Government’s Covid-19 website indicates that, at level 2, limited community transmission could be occurring and there were groups active in more than one region.
At level 2, no more than 100 people are allowed in gatherings, including weddings, funerals, and tangihanga, and face covering is required on public transportation and airplanes.
Baker said Stuff While the Greenhithe case was technically a community transmission, there was a distinction between those with a very clear connection to the border, like this case, and those acquired from an unknown source.
He said contact tracing should be “perfectly adequate” in this case.
‘Fine-tuning’ our response
However, Baker said there should be a “fairly rigorous investigation to fine-tune our response” over the next year.
This includes observing the routine increase in alert levels to 1.5 (or 0.5 above other alert levels) in the event of community transmission.
That would include encouraging the use of masks in public transport and in general for example.
He suggested that this could be done for a short period until health officials are sure they have identified all close contacts and have not spread further.
