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After months of flirting with the idea, it seems like a trans-Tasmanian bubble is coming soon. But the threat of Covid-19 is still looming and New Zealand is still unclear, warns a public health expert.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced on Monday that the wheels are underway to end a non-quarantine travel bubble with Australia in early 2021. The deal “in principle” is awaiting approval from the Australian Cabinet and is dependent on both countries containing the virus.
Professor Michael Baker, a public health expert at the University of Otago, believes the time is right for the bubble, and it could even have happened earlier. But the threat of Covid-19 remains.
“I think this is … a dangerous time for New Zealand,” he said.
Dean Lewins / AAP
Kiwis can now travel without quarantine to almost all Australian states and territories.
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“What is happening now, of course, is that the world is becoming more divided in terms of disease risk.”
Two Australian states, New South Wales and the Northern Territory, deemed New Zealand low risk in October and launched a one-way, no-quarantine travel agreement. Since then, most states and territories have opened their borders to Kiwi travelers. Queensland was the last state to reopen.
New Zealand’s borders have been tightly closed to all outsiders since February.
The decision to reopen the country to international travelers does not mean that the risk has been completely eliminated.
Ross Giblin / Stuff
Professor Michael Baker cautions that New Zealand is not out of the woods yet, even if it begins to reopen its borders to certain countries.
“We are not absolutely safe in any way,” Baker said.
He estimates that it will be months before there is a significant decline in transmission internationally. “The risk is still there.”
While New Zealand continues to work towards elimination, with no new cases reported on Monday, the virus continues to ravage the world.
The United States, which has led the charge for the most deaths and infections, saw a daily increase of 219,510 cases over the weekend, contributing to the global infection count of 72.2 million, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Baker and his colleagues at the University of Otago have proposed using a traffic light system to determine risk at the border. The system, which was implemented in Europe in October, proposes classifying destinations (green, amber or red) according to the level of community transmission.
The red countries are places that experience large amounts of community transmission, the green countries are the ones that handle the virus quite well.
The United States, for example, would be shaded red and arrivals might have to meet strict requirements. Australia and the Pacific Islands would be green zones, and arrivals may only need to test for Covid-19 and complete home quarantine.
Creating a quarantine-free bubble with Australia can free up a lot of capacity within designated quarantine and managed isolation facilities. Baker explained that these spaces can then be filled with people traveling from higher risk countries.
“If anything … we are going to see more cases imported into New Zealand in the coming months and it actually makes it quite a dangerous time because of the complacency that could start to show up.
New Zealand has already arranged to introduce a quarantine-free travel agreement with the Cook Islands. This is likely to go into effect before the Australian deal.
A start date for the Australian bubble has yet to be announced.
