Covid 19 coronavirus: the numbers that could block Sydney and NSW again

At the beginning of the week, it seemed that Australia’s coronavirus nightmare was slowly coming to an end.

Victoria’s cases continued to fall, even to single figures on Wednesday, and New South Wales’s 12-day streak of no local transmission looked like it could continue indefinitely, raising the possibility that the nation’s state borders would eventually reopen.

But that brief respite from the global pandemic came to an end on Wednesday, when NSW recorded three new coronavirus cases, prompting a warning from state health director Dr. Kerry Chant that they would undoubtedly come to light. more local cases.

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She was not wrong. The following day, seven locally acquired cases were detected and one was linked to a known group.

Later that day, NSW Health issued a public health alert for 10 public transportation routes, meaning potentially hundreds of people were exposed to the virus.

Taking into account quarantine cases in hotels, NSW (12) recorded more cases than Victoria (11) on Thursday.

The crucial difference is that Victoria remains under strict lockdown, while life in New South Wales still feels like it’s returning to some kind of normalcy.

Fortunately, the level of community transmission in New South Wales fell again on Friday, with five cases acquired locally and linked to a known group.

But if community broadcasting picks up again in New South Wales, the prospect of a dreaded idea arises: that the state could be plunged into a second lockdown.

Western Australian leader Mark McGowan suggested that New South Wales should already be blocking suburbs or zip codes.

“I know people from the East say New South Wales is the gold standard, but for the life of me I can’t understand why it’s better to be like [them] with all kinds of restrictions in place, a receding economy and flare-ups, than Western Australia without flare-ups, a thriving economy and safe and healthy people, “he said.

But what would it take to trigger a Melbourne-style lockdown in Sydney?

Epidemiologist Mary-Louise McLaws told news.com.au the decision to take it that far would depend on whether there is a “stubborn embedded community of low-grade spread.”

Fortunately, at least so far, that is not the case.

However, he said that if there were 100 cases in a continuous 14-day period, or more than seven cases per day, the NSW health authorities would be forced to make a “knife-edge” decision on the measures of closing.

She said that from mid-July to mid-September, New South Wales had a marked increase in cases that brought the number of cases to a maximum of 181 cases in total over a 14-day period.

“While this was high, the New South Wales authorities gained the upper hand, little by little over two months to come back,” he said. “The challenge in controlling the load of cases was the geographic distribution and distribution locations [at hospitality venues].

“The authorities must have believed that the tracing of their contacts was quick and complete, since they did not instigate the siege [of suburbs]. “

He said it was a good decision because there was no specific geographic point and a curfew wouldn’t have helped much either.

“Curfews work, but the cases were scattered and few, so not much would have been accomplished,” he said.

“And epidemiology showed a decrease, albeit slow and small, suggesting that a curfew or closure of social venues for 14 days was not necessarily necessary, but the situation was always razor’s edge and would have kept authorities awake at night betting the data for a change for the worse. “

So the fear is that if community broadcasting reaches that level again, the dreaded “turn for the worse” could materialize and the state would be forced to take closure measures.

What does this all mean for state lines?

NSW’s spike in community broadcasting this week comes as a particularly crushing blow to those wishing to visit interstate friends and family.

New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the cases showed that Queensland’s definition of what would be safe enough to reopen the border was “unrealistic.”

“We are always going to have emerging cases, because we are in a pandemic,” he said Wednesday morning.

“It is highly unlikely that NSW will reach 28 days without community transmission.”

But Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk stood firm in the decision to reopen only if NSW went 28 days without community broadcasting. Before the new cases were confirmed, the border was on track to reopen on November 1.

Palaszczuk said the health council still ruled that New South Wales would need to clear two incubation periods with no mystery cases before it was safe to reopen.

“Can I just say that, in relation to community broadcasting, we want to watch very carefully what happens in NSW over the next fortnight as the school holidays begin,” said Palaszczuk.

“That’s when people move too, and not just stay in their homes and neighborhoods.”

Another state that has blocked New South Wales is Western Australia, where Prime Minister Mark McGowan has said the hard border will remain in place until 28 days have passed without community transmission in the rest of the nation.

“We have to be careful and we will tear down the border when the health council says it is correct, but Victoria and New South Wales worry me,” he told reporters this week.

“Until we have confidence and the health councils are safe, we will keep the border in place.”

However, New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian said she still hoped that all states and territories would have open borders by the end of the year.

“I have noticed that Queensland and Washington continue to ease restrictions in their communities, while keeping the border up,” he told reporters Wednesday.

“That is indeed a false sense of security. It is better to eliminate those borders, create jobs through tourism and business and generate economic activity and maintain jobs.”

Meanwhile, it is unclear how increased community transmission will affect the Tasman border.

Starting October 26, residents of South Australia, Western Australia, Queensland, the Northern Territory and the ACT will be able to enter Tasmania without self-quarantine.

The relaxation could extend to New South Wales if the number of viruses remains “low” and Tasmanian health authorities say they are watching the situation on the continent closely.