Covid 19 coronavirus: the expert’s harsh prediction for Victoria

One of Australia’s epidemiologists says Australia should look to South Korea as an example of how the so-called “strict suppression” strategy might work.

Epidemiologist Tony Blakely today rejected the idea that Victoria will hit single-digit new case numbers anytime soon, suggesting that it may never happen until there is a vaccine. He said a prediction that the state would hit single figures next weekend “is not possible.”

“We are going down about 10 percent a day, which is good,” he told the Today show. “But reaching a single digit requires 40 percent. The person who made that estimate made a mathematical error.”

He said Victoria might not hit single figures “at all.”

“If we continue with the current trend, we will reach around 30 when we come out of the lockdown in two weeks on September 13,” he said. “So the single-digit digits can be something that happens if we come out of the lock very slowly and control it really well. I’m afraid the single-digit digits are missing for a while.”

He said that elimination of the virus now seems “too difficult” for Australia, and that they should look to South Korea as an example of how the so-called “strict suppression” strategy could be developed.

South Korea yesterday counted its 18th consecutive day of triple-digit daily jumps in coronavirus cases. Some 187 of the country’s 248 new cases come from the densely populated Seoul metropolitan area, which has been at the center of the viral resurgence this month.

“They have done the strict suppression very well, but they are in the middle of an outbreak of 200 to 300 cases a day,” he said. “They are the best case example we have. Outbreaks are possible.

“We want to control that without severe blockades, which really goes back to the Victorian government doing very good contact tracing, very good testing, citizens wearing masks in and out of venues and being sensible and not having mass group meetings. It’s a very world. different but it is our reality “.