Covid 19 coronavirus: reopening of schools and kindergartens ‘a calculated risk’ – expert

A leading Australian public health expert says New Zealand is taking “calculated risk” in reopening schools and early childhood centers next week.

Professor Tony Blakely, a former professor at the University of Otago who now heads the Population Intervention Unit at the University of Melbourne, says scientists still don’t know how much they transmit Covid-19 to other children and adults.

“Opening schools, only for the children of parents returning to work in the workplace, may be a necessary and welcome step. But it is a calculated risk,” he said.

Director-General for Health, Dr. Ashley Bloomfield, defended yesterday the decision to reopen schools and early childhood services beginning April 29 on the basis that children “have low infection rates, do not get sick, and they don’t transmit the virus to adults. ” .

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International data confirms that children are much less likely than adults to be detected with the virus, and even less likely to die from it.

The World Health Organization found that no child under the age of 10 died in China, South Korea, Italy, or Spain, and that no youth aged 10 to 19 died in any of these countries except China, where the death rate among young people who contracted the disease it was only 0.2 percent.

However, an article published by Johns Hopkins University on April 17 said that “what role children play in the transmission of [Covid-19]”

“There has been some evidence that Covid-19 causes milder disease in children and is therefore less likely to be detected than in adults,” the newspaper said.

“However, without more conclusive evidence, it is difficult to quantify the role of children
in spreading Covid-19 to other students, their families, teachers and school
personal.

Additionally, schools and child care facilities are staffed by adults, some of whom
You may be at risk of serious illness. These considerations weigh against reopening. “

Blakely said the true rate of Covid-19 infection among children was almost certainly higher than the number of reported cases, because most children who contract the virus do not show the usual symptoms, such as cough and breathing problems.

But he said that no one knew how fast children transmitted the virus to others.

“Covid-19 transmission among children may be very low or even negligible, reflecting the low rate of clinical sequelae among children, but we don’t know how low.”

“It is possible that New Zealand’s goal of elimination will be undermined by the opening of schools, if doing so allows for a low transmission rate that would not otherwise occur.”

“Also, because children are generally asymptomatic, any school transmission will be more difficult to detect, but will allow the infection to spread between homes that would not otherwise be connected, spreading continuous transmission throughout society.

“On the other hand, life and society should return to normal whenever possible. Opening schools, only for children of parents returning to work in the workplace, may be a necessary and welcome step. But it is a calculated risk. “

He said two things need to be done to reduce risk:

• “Access emerging international research on the transmissibility of Covid-19 among children as soon as possible [it is poorly understood at the moment] – and adjust the policy accordingly and quickly. “

• Compensate for the risk of school openings (and other restrictions on loosening restrictions) with extremely thorough surveillance, contact tracing (including apps), and testing (continuation of contacts from infected and quarantined cases, but spread further people with possible symptoms of Covid-19 and population surveys).

“If it appears that new cases have arisen due to transmission in schools, consider closing schools again or moving away from a goal of elimination to a goal of suppression or ‘controlled adaptation to the virus.’

The Early Childhood Council, the New Zealand Educational Institute and the Herald have called on the Ministry of Health to publish the basis for Bloomfield’s advice on reopening schools and early childhood services.

• Level 3 Rules for Education: covid19.govt.nz.